You're Going to Want to Buy Bhayshul Tuten

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Disclaimer: I don't own Tuten shares, but am aggressively pursuing him in a couple of my leagues and wanted to hear your thoughts on my analysis. I was looking for a way to see if I could compare the situation he's coming into to similar players in past situations. I understand the below sample is a tad bit cherry-picked, but I believe the story is directionally right as it's a unique situation. TLDR; Of the 25 instances since 2015, where a round 3+ RB was given an opportunity to potentially lead the backfield after a big-time RB departure, 17/25 (68%) instances led to that running back breaking out and scoring at least 13+ PPR points per game for the season. Additionally, 7/8 non-break out instances were due to either significant competition from rushing QBs or disastrous offenses in general (neither of which apply to the 2026 Jags). Leading to an adjusted 96% hit rate for similar situations! Tuten Situation Bhayshul Tuten, the Jaguars 4th round pick in the 2025 draft, is currently #1 on the Jaguars unofficial depth chart after Travis Etienne got traded to the Saints, vacating ~280 ppr fantasy points (260 carries). The Jags added Chris Rodriguez Jr. (4th year, 6th round pick) from the Commanders and also kept LeQuint Allen (2nd year, 7th round pick) as additional options. Model Methodology: The below represents how I filtered for the players/instances that would represent what Tuten's does for comparison: 1.Filtered for all instances from 2015-2025 for players who were drafted in the 3rd round or later (incl. UDFA) on a team with at least 175 total RB ppr points that were vacated the previous season (note: multiple RBs leaving adds to the total) Example: Najee Harris vacates 2024 Steelers with ~230 PPR points, 2025 leaves Kenneth Gainwell, Jaylen Warren, Trey Sermon with opportunity 2.Filtered instances to exclude those who had a "dominant acquisition" to fill that gap, defined as either a 1st or 2nd round RB OR an existing RB with >150 ppr points the previous season Example: Miles Sanders leaves Eagles in 2023 (243 vacated ppr points) and 3rd+ rounders Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell show up in the filter. However, Eagles add D'Andre Swift who the previous season scored 201 ppr points (essentially filling the vacated gap). Model excludes this example 3.Removed outliers where the vacated total points were from a combination of 2+ players, where one vacated player didn't have at least 150 ppr points that season Example: Rex Burkhead (114 ppr points) and Sony Michel (82 ppr points) both left NE in 2021 leaving the opportunity to Damien Harris (funny enough - Harris broke out this season and scored 15.35 PPR ppg in 15 games played, but I felt it was right to exclude these situations since they aren't similar to Tuten's) As a note: I ran the model with these instances NOT filtered out and the end results didn't really change (same story) Results: https://imgur.com/a/GtsPgsJ 68% of instances had the RB breaking out that season and scoring 13+ ppr fantasy points per game 4/8 (50%) "non-break out instances" had the RB getting very close to breaking out - scoring 10-12 PPR ppg 3/8 (38%) "non-break out instances" had the RB competing with legit rushing QBs (e.g., Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Marcus Marriota/Jayden Daniels) 5/8 (63%) "non-break out instances" had the RB on a some of the worst teams we've seen in the last decade (e.g., 2019 Dolphins run game was worst by any team since 2006) Accounting for the fact there is really only one in…