What the data says about Jadarian Price's fantasy upside in 2026 and beyond

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I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Jadarian Price's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps: 10/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (50%) 6/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (30%) 2/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (10%) __________________________________ Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR): Floor → 0.88 Q1 (25th % outcome) → 5.41 Median → 11.99 Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.49 Ceiling → 14.91 While Jadarian Price is far from my *favorite* prospects in the 2026 rookie class, there is no doubt he is one of the most *fascinating* to talk about. Price's profile is truly unique, and it makes it difficult to evaluate. In the three years he played at Notre Dame (redshirted his first year) he RARELY touched the ball...but when he did, it was almost always explosive. His advanced rushing metrics indicate he can break anything off for a big gain and he is not entirely dependent on an effective OL - he can create for himself. That's pretty much where the good stuff ends lol. When it comes to receiving involvement (obviously one of the most crucial aspects of being an impactful fantasy RB), Jadarian Price scores GENERATIONALLY poor. He averaged only 5 receptions per season, and his avg. depth of target across his career was literally negative. Both of these are in the bottom 10% of ALL runningbacks going back to 2014. This skillset, along with being drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, puts Price in an intriguing spot. He'll probably receive a majority of the carries in SEA (at least until Charbonnet returns from injury) but how valuable even is that role from a fantasy football perspective? I'm personally proceeding with caution with a profile like this, and would temper upside expectations. What do you guys think about Jadarian Price? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far! I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙 submitted by /u/boofstar [link] [comments]