What the data says about Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt’s outlook in 2026 and beyond

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I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about JCM's 2026 outlook and beyond, given his year 2 statistical comps: 5/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (25%) 2/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (10%) 0/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (0%) __________________________________ Year 2 FPPG distribution specifically: Floor → 2.09 Q1 (25th % outcome) → 4.2 Median → 7.1 Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.13 Ceiling → 14.78 JCM had quite an interesting runout his rookie season. He had nearly the best possible opportunity window (BRob traded, Ekeler injured, etc) and while he flashed at times, he ultimately failed to capitalize on what could have been a smash spot. Now, that isn't to say there wasn't adversity that he had to face - with Daniels going down multiple times and Mariota primarily failing to command a high-level offense, it was tough for Bill to get anything going in his own right. While the data doesn't suggest Bill is likely to be a highly productive fantasy back (he was literally a stone zero in the passing game, and they just added two high-level passcatching backs in Rachaad White and Jerome Ford), it's hard to envision him not serving as the lead rusher on WAS in 2026. While White and Ford are effective in LDD/passblocking situations, neither are known for their effectiveness when receiving a bulk of the carries. Overall, I'm cautiously optimistic on JCM being a mid-tier flex option in 2026 with some upside, but it’s gonna require a year 2 leap in the receiving game and some TD efficiency. We can't forget how lethal this Washington offense was when at full strength! If Jeremiyah Love falls to WAS at 7, all bets are off with Bill. But if he survives night 1 of the NFL Draft, he’d become one of my favorite cheap targets in Dynasty (especially on zero/hero RB teams). Make sure to check out the video for all my thoughts along with the full list of comps, and check out the full Year 2 comps series on my channel for all the guys I’ve covered!🤙 submitted by /u/boofstar [link] [comments]