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What the data says about Germie Bernard's fantasy outlook in 2026 and beyond
May 30, 2026/u/boofstarr/DynastyFF
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I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Germie Bernard's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps: 8/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (40%) 6/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (30%) 3/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (15%) __________________________________ Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR): Floor → 2.18 Q1 (25th % outcome) → 3.97 Median → 7.89 Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 12.07 Ceiling → 13.93 I'm sorry y'all...I just don't see anything special in Bernard's profile. He has some reasonably high success %s that are mainly tied to his solid draft capital. But when looking at his college production profile, there really isn't much there that signals he can be an impactful fantasy producer on a consistent basis. He's headed to Pittsburgh, where they already have two solid target earners in Metcalf and Pittman...along with some pretty serious question marks at QB past this year. I don't see much of a role for him in year 1, and it doesn't seem like it's going to get much clearer in the near-term after that... What do you guys think about Germie Bernard? Am I missing something with this profile? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far! I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙 submitted by /u/boofstar [link] [comments]