What the data says about Carnell Tate's fantasy upside in 2026 and beyond

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Happy Wednesday everybody! I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Carnell Tate's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps: 13/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (65%) 6/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (30%) 3/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (15%) __________________________________ Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR): Floor → 2.05 Q1 (25th % outcome) → 7.87 Median → 10.87 Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.36 Ceiling → 18.11 Carnell Tate is my WR1 in the 2026 class. Here's why: - Early Declare prospect (3 years in college before declaring) - Top-tier program strength (Ohio State) - Strong production profile alongside other INSANE prospects - NFL talent co-sign (4th overall draft capital) Earlier this offseason I thought I was gonna go with Tyson WR1 because he has better nerd stats. But the more I think about it, this is just such a class case of don't overthink it. Carnell Tate is HIGHLY likely to be a stud at the NFL level. What do you guys think about Carnell Tate? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far! I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙 submitted by /u/boofstar [link] [comments]