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Washington Commanders 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 1, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
Jayden Daniels
QB · WAS · #general
...view-300x200.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Jayden Daniels" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> The foll...
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB · WAS · #general
...two draft classes. The backfield also leaves something to be desired, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White, Kaytron Allen, Jeremy McNichols, and Jerome Ford battling...
Kaytron Allen
RB · WAS · #breakoutcandidate
...eaves something to be desired, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White, Kaytron Allen, Jeremy McNichols, and Jerome Ford battling for roles. <a href="htt...
Jeremy McNichols
RB · WAS · #breakoutcandidate
...to be desired, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White, Kaytron Allen, Jeremy McNichols, and Jerome Ford battling for roles. <a href="https://www.sharpfoot...
Terry McLaurin
WR · WAS · #injuryupdate
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The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Washington Commanders could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Washington Commanders 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The Commanders are coming off an injury-plagued 2025 season. They were 30th in offensive player health, 27th in defensive player health, and 30th in total player health. Jayden Daniels started only seven games. Injuries also limited Terry McLaurin to 10 games. In addition, rookie Josh Conerly was their only offensive lineman to play in all 17 games. The defense's injuries included a torn ACL for Marshon Lattimore and missed time for Trey Amos, Daron Payne, and Dorance Armstrong, among others. -Washington was 8-4 in one-score games in 2024, tying for third in one-score wins and sixth in one-score game win percentage (.667). The other shoe dropped in 2025, when the Commanders were 2-5 in one-score games, tying for 26th in one-score wins and tying for 26th in one-score game win percentage (.286). -The Commanders were 27th in fumbles lost (11), 21st in total turnovers (23), 31st in opponent turnovers (10), 32nd in opponent fumbles lost, 29th in fumble luck (-3.9 net compared to expectations), 31st in turnover margin (-13), and 31st in turnover net EPA. A healthier season at quarterback and an overhauled and healthier defense that projects to have seven new starters should allow them to close the turnover margin this season. Reasons for the Under -Surprisingly, even with the crucial injuries on offense last year, the Commanders punched in touchdowns in the red zone at an above-average rate. They were fourth in red-zone touchdown rate (65.2% compared to 57.3% for the league average). -The Commanders went 2-5 (.286) against playoff teams and 2-7 (.222) against teams with a winning record in 2025. They have the eighth-most difficult strength of schedule in 2026. -Washington’s skill-position talent beyond Terry McLaurin is shaky. Van Jefferson (2,226 receiving yards and 166 receptions) and Chig Okonkwo (2,017 receiving yards and 194 receptions) are the only other pass catchers on the team with over 2,000 career receiving yards and more than 100 career receptions. Additionally, the third-round pick used on Antonio Williams this year is the most significant draft capital used on a wide receiver or tight end in the previous two draft classes. The backfield also leaves something to be desired, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White, Kaytron Allen, Jeremy McNichols, and Jerome Ford battling for roles. This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview Order Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview to Get Penalty Analysis for All 32 NFL Teams Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview , is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and…