The Path to a WR1 Season: Brian Thomas Jr. (Fantasy Football)

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In 2024, all of us with Brian Thomas Jr . were skipping through the fields of flowers, thinking, “He’s doing this in his rookie year? EUREKA! I struck fantasy gold!” It was incredible. BTJ was drafted in the 10th round, and he finished as the WR4 . He even won multiple Footie Awards that season, too ( They are still in the mail ). Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 Season series . For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2026 Path to WR1 Series Primer . Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit . 2025 Season Recap Fast forward to 2025, BTJ was being drafted in the early second round of fantasy drafts, and that turned out to be one of the worst possible picks you could have made. His disappointing sophomore season was riddled with injuries, drops galore, and a Jacksonville Jaguars receiving room that took a step forward, even with Travis Hunter playing limited snaps. Going into Year 3 , not much has changed, but what can change for Brian Thomas Jr . to return to WR1 dominance with another season under Liam Coen? DUUUVAL! Brian Thomas Jr . Career Stats: Year GP Rank PTS PPG TGT REC YDS TD 2024 17 4 240.5 14.1 133 87 1282 10 2025 14 44 114.8 8.2 91 48 707 2 The Path in 2026 Since 2000, here is the list of first-round rookie WRs who had 1000+ receiving yards: Rank Player Yds Rec TD 1 Ja’Marr Chase 1455 81 13 2 Justin Jefferson 1400 88 7 3 Odell Beckham Jr . 1305 91 12 4 Brian Thomas 1282 87 10 5 Malik Nabers 1204 109 7 6 Michael Clayton 1193 80 7 7 Garrett Wilson 1103 83 4 8 Amari Cooper 1070 72 6 9 A.J. Green 1057 65 7 10 Mike Evans 1051 68 12 11 Chris Olave 1042 72 4 12 Jaylen Waddle 1015 104 6 13 Tetairoa McMillan 1014 70 7 14 Kelvin Benjamin 1008 73 9 1,000 yards is not a magical number, but it does show that reaching this milestone is an exclusive club of mostly great players. BTJ wasn’t just on the list; he finished fourth. Brian Thomas Jr . had a rollercoaster of a second season, and that is exactly why he was a nominee for the Poopiest Pants Award. Chasing a WR1 finish is much easier than chasing THE WR1 overall, so let’s take a look at the WR12 benchmark and work from there. Year Player Receptions Rec Yards Rec TDs PPR PPG Fantasy Finish 2025 Jameson Williams 65 1117 7 12.9 WR12 2024 Jerry Jeudy 90 1229 4 14.2 WR12 2023 Nico Collins 80 1297 8 17.4 WR12 2022 Christian Kirk 84 1108 8 14.2 WR12 2021 Mike Williams 76 1146 9 15.4 WR12 2020 AJ Brown 70 1075 11 17.7 WR12 Average: 77.5 1162 7.8 15.3 That average of 78 receptions for 1160 receiving yards and seven TDs is well within the range of what BTJ is capable of because… he has already done it. He just needs a few things to go his way. Target Competition Going into the 2025 season, we saw the Jaguars draft WR/DB Travis Hunter with the second-overall pick. Thinking he would play some offense and some defense, there wasn’t much competition still for BTJ. Turns out, we were wrong. Parker Washington emerged, Brenton Strange played well enough to garner a top 10 TE contract over the offseason, Jakobi Meyers arrived halfway through the season, and Travis Hunter was looking promising before injury. In 2026, not much has changed… or has it? Sometimes, before the season, we overestimate our ability to accurately predict how the offense will flow, and before you know it, a player (or two) has clearly separated themselves from the rest. From time to time, there just…