ArticleScore 96
Should we Invest in Ambiguous Pass Catcher Depth Charts?
Jul 5, 2026Jakob SandersonThinking About Thinking (Jakob Sanderson)
Player mentions
Jayden Reed
WR · GB · #general
...Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Wash...
Michael Wilson
WR · ARI · #general
...ich fit that definition: The Cardinals (Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packer...
Rome Odunze
WR · CHI · #general
...ison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden...
Marvin Harrison
WR · ARI · #general
...ere are five teams which fit that definition: The Cardinals (Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome...
Brian Thomas
WR · JAX · #general
...Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec...
Russell Wilson
QB · #general
...that definition: The Cardinals (Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packer...
Matthew Golden
WR · GB · #general
...d, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and th...
Colston Loveland
TE · CHI · #general
...Bride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, M...
Tyler Warren
TE · IND · #general
...guars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs). Should we be targeting these players? An...
Luther Burden
WR · CHI · #general
...Cardinals (Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden...
DJ Thomas-Jones
TE · #general
...ian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec...
Brittan Golden
WR · #general
...Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and th...
Josh Rounds
RB · #general
...with three or more wide receivers or tight ends all being drafted between Rounds 3 and 10. I’ve used Underdog ADP and scoring settings for this artic...
Chris Warren
RB · #general
...(Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs). Should we be targeting these players? An...
Jakobi Meyers
WR · JAX · #general
...Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs). Should we...
Drew Sample
TE · CIN · #traderumor
.../p> The final caveat is that we’re dealing with a reasonably small sample of players, and the results are influenced by factors beyond the perceived...
Benjamin Watson
TE · #general
...(Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr....
Trey McBride
TE · ARI · #general
...> In 2026 there are five teams which fit that definition: The Cardinals (Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colst...
Alec Pierce
WR · IND · #general
...homas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs). Should we be targeting these players? And if so ̵...
Christian Watson
WR · GB · #general
...the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr....
Tucker Kraft
TE · GB · #general
...olston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi...
Parker Washington
WR · JAX · #general
...Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs). </...
Josh Downs
WR · IND · #general
...rker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs). Should we be targeting these players? And if so — whom are...
Article text
Hello folks and welcome back to Thinking About Thinking ’s fantasy football coverage. Earlier this week we took a brief break from such matters to talk about the Jaylen Brown trade in a free post I’d encourage everyone to check out! But now it’s time to get back to our bread and butter: fantasy football! Today’s article is the first in a two-part series about ambiguous pass catcher depth charts. Over the past few years J.J. Zachariason has done fantastic work on ambiguous backfields , and discovered that targeting such backfields is a high-upside strategy for finding underpriced RB1s. Looking at the 2026 ADP landscape, I couldn’t help but notice there are a group of wide receiver and tight rooms with multiple players going relatively close together in ADP, each leaving analysts and drafters split on whom is the best bet at cost. This made me curious to look at past results from “ambiguous pass catcher rooms” to determine whether they should be targeted or avoided, and which type of pass catchers might be the best bet to place within them. Let’s start by defining our terms. Obviously any definition I choose would be arbitrary but it’s best to draw a line somewhere. I decided to focus on teams with three or more wide receivers or tight ends all being drafted between Rounds 3 and 10. I’ve used Underdog ADP and scoring settings for this article but the larger takeaways from this piece should be equally applicable to both redraft and best ball leagues. In 2026 there are five teams which fit that definition: The Cardinals (Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson), the Bears (Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze), the Packers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden), the Jaguars (Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers), and the Colts (Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs). Should we be targeting these players? And if so — whom are the best targets? In today’s column we’ll look through past results of similar teams, and in Part 2 we’ll apply the trends we uncover to this year’s crop. A Look Back at History Before I get deep into this I want to give out some caveats about what I think historical data can and can’t teach us. Since I’m engaging in this analysis I of course think there are some useful lessons we can learn from past trends. However, there are several ways in which we should not presume the past to determine the future. The first and most important caveat is that every player deserves to be analyzed in their own vacuum. If a pass catcher that becomes a season-defining hit, the most important reason for it will be their own talent, and the most important data we can look at to project their talent is their own — not that of past players. The second caveat is that I’ve used a fairly broad ADP range with arbitrary cut offs which allows for very different cumulative costs of the pass catcher room as a whole, and includes rooms in which ADPs are relatively spread or extremely tight together. The third caveat is that this entire exercise is based on drafter’s perception of ambiguity. In many past cases and surely in future cases drafters were incorrect in how they viewed these rooms, and had the market perceived things differently we may have a different list of players to parse our past results from. The final caveat is that we’re dealing with a reasonably small sample of players, and the results are influenced by factors beyond the perceived ambiguity of pass catcher hierarchy. The…