Selling Young WRs- Fools Gold vs Gold

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For the past couple of years the overriding sentiment in Dynasty has been "Young WR's are gold". They hold their value for a long time and are perfect for any build (contender, middle, rebuilder). I really don't disagree with that statement at all after the influx of great WRs like JJ and Chase, but after checking KTC this advice seems to have swung massively in favor of these WRS. A swing which I think can be deployed to gain an edge in dynasty. My theory is: a WR drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft that performs at a WR3 level or above his rookie year in fantasy becomes overvalued. Sounds ridiculous at first, but this is just trying to apply the Buy Low/ Sell High theory which is more difficult in real life than in theory. I do want to point out that JJ and Chase really paved the way for this recent overvaluing due to their amazing rookie years. They shot up rankings and stayed, but I am going to look at players drafted in their drafts and after. These stats are based off of a 1PPR 12 team league and the rankings are from early January KTC. KTC is not perfect, but it does create a snapshot of the historical value of a player. WR Rookie PPR Finish Positional KTC Rank After Rookie Year Soph. PPR Finish Positional Jan KTC Rank After Soph. Year Devonta Smith WR29 13 WR9 13 Jaylen Waddle WR13 5 WR8 5 Garrett Wilson WR21 6 WR26 6 Chris Olave WR25 10 WR16 9 Elijah Moore WR49 15 WR81 41 Drake London WR31 8 WR37 23 Zay Flowers WR31 15 WR25 21 BTJ WR4 7 WR42 19 Ladd WR13 14 WR30 16 Malik Nabers* WR6 3 WR102 4 *Major Injury Again, I chose receivers who produced something in year 1 and were chosen in the first round of the rookie draft (I included Elijah Moore since he was a high second round pick). What does this mean? First, this is not an indictment on the players/ how good they are. I like a lot of these players and think they are great NFL receivers. But the dynasty community becomes infatuated with young WRs in rookie drafts and if they produce anything as a rookie, we catapult them up our rankings. We hope they become a consistent top 10 receiver. Unfortunately, the WR space doesn't have the turnover that the RB position has so it is difficult to displace a mainstay at the position (Mike Evans, Davante, JJ, Chase). Two receivers produced as a WR1 as rookies (in this chart) and three produced as WR2s, but all of them were either valued as a WR1 or high end WR2. More importantly, if you were drafting them/ expecting them to take a leap and produce as WR1s or high end WR2s you were most likely disappointed as only 3 performed as either of those as sophomores. This is where I think you can take advantage and use their value to extract more value via trades without losing the PPG advantage. This is a super aggressive strategy. But it has the chance of paying off by loading a team up with more picks/ players who are producing. I don't think because something happened in the past, it is bound to repeat in the future but two players who fit this mold right now are Tet and Egbuka. Both promising young 1st round NFL talents who produced as rookies. Tet- WR 16 with his KTC WR value being WR9 Egbuka- WR 23 with his KTC WR value being WR10 Would I sell them? I don't know, but if I wanted to maximize my return on investment now would be the time. Obviously this is all in a vacuum and each league has it's own micro-economy but if I could flip Egbuka for Zay Flowers and a 26 1st I may look into it more. The dynasty community is sharp and it is fun…