Second Half Surges: Signal or Noise (WR, Part 3 of 4)

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Again, I'll skip most of the intro on this post, see the original post on QBs here for the full context if you missed it: https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1tc7s83/second_half_surges_signal_or_noise_qb_part_1_of_4/ The 2nd post on RBs can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1tczj9n/second_half_surges_signal_or_noise_rb_part_2_of_4/ Basically, I will be evaluating whether a strong surge in the second half of the season is indicative of success the next season, one position at a time. Today, we will be discussing RBs. The results are included below, with supporting figures in the X link. Reminder: Trajectory = 2nd Half PPG - First Half PPG First Half = Weeks 1-8, Second Half = Weeks 9+ Y1 and Y2 are any consecutive seasons, not just rookie and 2nd year All data is from the fantasypros weekly leaders dataset (2013-2025), 0.5 PPR. Results: When we evaluate the effects of Trajectory score on Y2 PPG in WRs, once again we see a very different pattern emerge than we saw for QBs and RBs. When looking at the first graph, we don’t see much of a relationship between Trajectory and Y2 PPG, except for a potentially small positive relationship in Q1 (< 6.4 PPG). However, when we evaluate the second graph, we see that there really is no significant relationship anywhere along the curve. So what does this tell us? Unlike QBs and RBs, trajectory doesn’t seem to have any real signal for WRs. At first glance, this seems like it doesn’t really tell us anything. However, I think we can still glean a bit of insight from this. Whether a WR has a crazy surge or falloff to end the season, we really shouldn’t think of them any differently. Instead, looking at their season as a whole is often the best indicator for future PPG. So why does trajectory matter for QBs and RBs, but not WRs? It’s a difficult question without an obvious answer, but I suspect it has to do with the nature of the wide receiver position being so dependent on external factors. Unlike QBs and RBs, WRs are reliant not only on offensive scheme, but also on good QB play, earning targets, and defensive scheme. Their TD variance can also be much higher from season to season than a RB. All together, I imagine its fairly easy for a WR to catch a few deep balls or TDs and inflate their production without any real change in their role or talent. This conclusion did surprise me a bit, as the original inspiration for this project came from a few WRs who really took off down the stretch and then exploded the next year: Amon-Ra and JSN. However, there are just as many examples of the similar players that didn’t hit. Zay Jones in the back half of 2018 was earning nearly 8 targets per game and caught 6 TDs in 7 games but never broke out. Tank Dell and Jayden Reed looked like potential breakout players in 2023 and then never took off in 2024. Jerry Jeudy went crazy to finish 2024 and then fell off a cliff this year. With more context or detailed statistics, I’m sure these examples and many more could be explained away. However, as it stands in this simplified analysis, the point remains that a change in raw fantasy production to end the season should not sway our view of a WR away from their season-long numbers. 2025-26 Actionable Insights: Michael Wilson: Perhaps the clearest example here, I think overreacting to Michael Wilson’s run to end the season would be irresponsible. Wilson averaged 3.9 PPG in the first half of the season, and then 15.5 PPG in the second half, good f…