Second Half Surges: Signal or Noise (RB, Part 2 of 4)

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I'll skip most of the intro on this post, see the original post here for the full context if you missed it: https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/1tc7s83/second_half_surges_signal_or_noise_qb_part_1_of_4/ Basically, I will be evaluating whether a strong surge in the second half of the season is indicative of success the next season, one position at a time. Today, we will be discussing RBs. The results are included below, with supporting figures in the X link. Reminder: Trajectory = 2nd Half PPG - First Half PPG First Half = Weeks 1-8, Second Half = Weeks 9+ Y1 and Y2 are any consecutive seasons, not just rookie and 2nd year All data is from the fantasypros weekly leaders dataset (2013-2025), 0.5 PPR. Results: When we evaluate the effects of Trajectory score on Y2 PPG in RBs, we see a very different set of patterns emerge than those we saw in the QB analysis. When looking at the first graph, we can see that lower scoring RBs (Q1 and Q2) show almost no relationship between Trajectory and Y2 PPG. However, for higher scoring RBs (Q3 and Q4) a clear positive relationship is present. This is also evident in the second graph, which shows a significant positive effect for RBs with a Y1 PPG above about 11 ppg. So why does this differ from QB, where lower scorers were more likely to see a strong signal from their Trajectory score? I would hypothesize that it is much easier for a random RB to get on the field and achieve a low level of production than a random QB. Teams frequently play multiple RBs in a committee, and these RBs get much more banged up than QBs. Whether due to an injury in front of them, trades, or shifting roles, it is much easier for an RB to randomly be presented with opportunity for a couple games than it is for a QB. However, this production is not necessarily indicative of any future role or breakout. Devin Neal averaged 10.4 PPG over a 4 game span after the Saints’ bye week last season. This production was potentially useful for some managers, but it occurred almost entirely as a result of circumstance. No Alvin Kamara or Kendre Miller meant that Neal had the backfield almost entirely to himself. Now, with both presumably healthy again, and Travis Etienne joining the fold, Neal’s fantasy upside is significantly capped next season. However, for higher-end players, a strong Trajectory score may be more indicative of real role changes in the offense, which tend to be more sticky season to season. For example, in 2018, Derrick Henry had been a sub-40% snap share player for 2 seasons, getting only about 10 carries per game. He started 2018 similarly, without a single game over 60 rushing yards through week 13, and multiple games with single digits carries and sub 30% snap shares. Then, to end the season, he exploded, averaging 22 carries and over 140 yards per game over his last 4 games, while playing over 50% of the snaps. There was no injury or next-man-up gimmick that forced him into a role, his production came from an evolution and increase in his already established role. So in summary, while upward trajectories don’t have much signal for low-end RBs, they can absolutely indicate a potential breakout for mid-high tier RBs. 2025-26 Actionable Insights: Treveyon Henderson: Henderson fits the criteria for our model almost perfectly. After averaging 5.6 ppg over his first 8 games, he averaged 16 ppg over his last 9, finishing the season at 11.1 PPG with a 10.4 trajectory score. Granted, his increase in production began wh…