Refining Processes: What is a Process?

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Dynasty is a game of trial and error. There is no such thing as the “perfect strategy”. I can almost guarantee that you will make mistakes. We are all relatively bad at this game we play, because predicting the future is hard. All we can really hope for is to be marginally better than our league mates when it comes to making decisions. This Refining Processes series is aimed at improving our decision-making processes through experimentation. Some avenues we explore may be completely fruitless, while others may yield useful results. Regardless of the outcome, there will still be many valuable lessons to learn along the way. It’s all part of the journey to becoming a better dynasty manager. What is a Process? So far, this series has been all about trying different strategies to gain an edge in our fantasy leagues. I focus almost exclusively on concepts that can improve how we value players because it seems to be the most important, given that it informs everything you do as a manager. Throughout all of this, I realized I haven’t really stopped to define what a “process” is in fantasy football. What exactly do most people mean when they refer to something as their process? Some Examples Looking around the fantasy football analysis space, we have many different analysts out there to use as examples of having a process. I think the most clear example is within rookie prospecting analysis. People take a wide range of approaches to this problem and have developed systems to improve their decision-making within rookie drafts. JJ Zachariason is known for his prospect model called the “Zap Score”.His process here involves building a predictive model using historical data. Matt Waldman is also big in the rookie analysis space, and his process is arguably the most in-depth. He utilizes a checklist where he charts out whether or not players display certain techniques on film. He also uses an in-depth grading rubric to score player talent on a 100-point scale. Matt Harmon charts the frequency, alignment and defensive coverage type of each route a receiver runs. He tracks the rate at which receivers get open on each individual route and the rate at which they get open against different coverage types. Using this data, Harmon creates a tiered ranking list of prospects based roughly on where he thinks they should be selected in the NFL Draft. In my opinion, these are some of the best analysts in the space. These are all what most would consider complete processes. But I would push back on that. What I just described isn’t actually the entire process for any of these analysts. It’s just not the full picture. An Important Distinction These analysts are great, and their work is just flat-out amazing. They all move the conversation around fantasy football forward, which is what I think any analyst should strive to do. But I think it’s very important to recognize something very subtle that’s going on here. Yes, they all provide their own unique insights and value, but that’s not all they do. To me, a process is much more than your isolated work. When we make decisions for our fantasy teams, we don’t live in a bubble. We don’t just stick to the model or stick to the film. We use all the information at our disposal to make the best decisions we can. That means making adjustments. That means listening to others we respect. So no, processes aren’t just charting film or making a model. Processes are how you make decisions as a whole with all available informatio…