Re-Grading The 2023 NFL Draft

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Conventional wisdom suggests you can’t truly judge a draft class until they’ve been in the league for at least three years. Any immediate reactions are just based on your priors, and rookie seasons can be misleading. To truly gauge a class’ value, it’s important to see how things play out over the course of the bulk of their rookie contracts. Today, I’m following that conventional wisdom. Let’s wind the clock back three years to 2023: how did these classes turn out compared to our initial first impression ? I’m re-grading all 32 classes with the benefit of hindsight. Let’s see how each team did: Arizona Cardinals Round 1, Pick 6: Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr. Round 2, Pick 41: LSU ED B.J. Ojulari Round 3, Pick 72: Syracuse CB Garrett Williams Round 3, Pick 94: Stanford WR Michael Wilson Round 4, Pick 122: UCLA G Jon Gaines II Round 5, Pick 139: Houston QB Clayton Tune Round 5, Pick 168: Auburn LB Owen Pappoe Round 6, Pick 180: Louisville CB Kei’Trel Clark Round 6, Pick 213: West Virginia DT Dante Stills Original Grade: A+ 3-Year Grade: B+ The Cardinals moved around the board twice to land Johnson, netting a future first-round pick in the process. While he hasn’t single-handedly fixed their offensive line, he’s been a good addition and a steady presence on the left side. Williams had to take a redshirt year as a rookie to recover from a torn ACL, but he’s stood out as a good nickel corner since coming back. Wilson might be the star of this group. He dominated down the stretch of 2025 once Arizona started funneling more of the passing offense through him. Gaines and Pappoe have managed to stick as depth pieces, too. Atlanta Falcons Round 1, Pick 8: Texas RB Bijan Robinson Round 2, Pick 38: Syracuse G Matthew Bergeron Round 3, Pick 75: Ohio State ED Zach Harrison Round 4, Pick 113: Utah CB Clark Phillips Round 7, Pick 224: Alabama S DeMarcco Hellams Round 7, Pick 225: South Carolina C Jovaughn Gwyn Original Grade: C 3-Year Grade: C+ Robinson is just as good as everyone thought he’d be coming out of Texas. The problem for the Falcons is exactly what everyone thought as well: they don’t have the infrastructure to maximize Robinson’s talents. Three years later and they’re still looking to cobble together a competent team. Bergeron is a good left guard, but no one else in this class made much of an impact. Harrison and Hellams are still on the roster, but don’t get much run. Baltimore Ravens Round 1, Pick 22: Boston College WR Zay Flowers Round 3, Pick 86: Clemson LB Trenton Simpson Round 4, Pick 124: Ole Miss ED Tavius Robinson Round 5, Pick 157: Stanford CB Kyu Blu Kelly Round 6, Pick 199: Oregon G Sala Aumavae-Laulu Round 7, Pick 229: USC G Andrew Vorhees Original Grade: A- 3-Year Grade: B- Flowers is just as electric as he was billed coming out of college. He’s been Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 receiver since the day he was drafted, and at times he’s been Jackson’s only noteworthy receiver. Simpson’s been a disappointment, but Robinson is a quality rotational edge rusher. Vorhees fell due to injury and has been a consistent starter, though his play leaves something to be desired at times. Buffalo Bills Round 1, Pick 25: Utah TE Dalton Kincaid Round 2, Pick 59: Florida G O’Cyrus Torrence Round 3, Pick 91: Tulane LB Dorian Williams Round 5, Pick 150: Florida WR Justin Shorter Round 7, Pick 230: Ole Miss OT Nick Broeker Round 7, Pick 252: Oregon State CB Alex Austin Original Grade: C 3-Year Grade: B This was a pretty good draft for the Bills. It’…