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Projecting Cardinals target distribution with a modest measure of Michael Wilson copium
Jun 15, 2026/u/3Dimesr/DynastyFF
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
Michael Wilson
WR · ARI · #startrecommendation
This is under the assumption that Jacoby Brissett is the starter for the majority of the season. I don't see why he wouldn't be as long as he reports to ca...
Russell Wilson
QB · #startrecommendation
This is under the assumption that Jacoby Brissett is the starter for the majority of the season. I don't see why he wouldn't be as long as he reports to ca...
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This is under the assumption that Jacoby Brissett is the starter for the majority of the season. I don't see why he wouldn't be as long as he reports to camp and the org realizes that they should punt until Arch or Dante are available when they are on the clock next Spring. I don't really want to touch on the quality of the players just yet because I understand that MHJ is a top 5 pick and that comes with a lot of criticism and expectation. I'll just go through my projections of the Cardinals offense, while acknowledging my focus leans toward Michael Wilson since I own a lot of him. The first thing to sort out about this is Trey McBride's piece. In 2025, while Marv was healthy, McBride's target share was at an astronomical 30%. With Brissett, it was at 28% with or without a healthy Marv. In 2024 with Kyler, he had another 28% share, so either way he is getting a big piece of the pie. That being said, I think it's fair to say that he will get slightly less of it considering more short area targets for Jeremiyah Love and an increased volume for the recievers which I will get into next. During weeks 11,12, 14 and 15, Michael Wilson took over as the WR1. Bear with me, Im not suggesting he's the WR1 in 2026 based off of small stretch where Marv was in concussion protocol. For those four weeks Wilson had a target share of 32.5%. In weeks 11 and 12, Greg Dortch stepping in as the WR2 and had a share of 15.2%. That is a combined 47.7% for the top two recievers. That is an 8% difference compared to when Marv was fully healthy with Brissett in weeks 7, 9, 10 and 13. In that span, the top two recievers put up a 39.7% share, with 24.6% of it going to Marv. I feel like this is the biggest change in the passing game the Cards will make this season. I don't count on it being 50% but I don't think its crazy to expect 43-45% of the targets going to the outside recievers with the way they have talked about Michael Wilson this off-season. If they sign Keenan Allen or something, I'll definitely recalibrate, but as it stands: McBride: 27% Harrison: 25% Wilson: 20% Love: 16% Other: 12% submitted by /u/3Dimes [link] [comments]