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Preview Warren Sharp’s Book: Predicting Commanders’ 2025 Season
Jun 10, 2026Warren SharpSharp Football Analysis
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You are probably hearing great things about Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview , but you're curious about what a team chapter looks like and how predictive and helpful it will be heading into next season. We've got you covered. » Download the 2025 Commanders Team Chapter Warren Sharp had significant concerns about the Commanders regressing in 2025 based on several factors, including historic success on fourth downs during the 2024 season. As we enter 2025, the expectations are massively different based on how the 2024 season concluded. It was not just a 12-5 season. It was a trip all the way to the NFC Championship game with a rookie quarterback. Instead of being favored in three games on lookahead lines, as they were last summer, the Commanders are now favored in 12 games this fall. They have a 9.5 win total, up 3 from last season. Before we dissect their 2025 offseason moves, their upcoming schedule, and what year two from Jayden Daniels might look like, let’s first get a better understanding of “how” they made their run to the NFC Championship last season. Because, as exciting a run as that was for any football fan watching an underdog carve its way through the postseason, I guarantee there are several things you didn’t realize about this Commanders team that are extremely important to be aware of and useful to consider with regard to setting future expectations. The Commanders' aggressiveness on fourth down took over NFL discussions last year. The fact they parlayed that aggressiveness into a trip to the NFC Championship was something notable and helped endear the team’s “win at all costs” mentality. But lost in the discussion was the fact the Commanders went for it on fourth down more often in 2023, 2022, and 2021. Fourth down attempts by year: 2024: 23 att ◄ 2023: 29 att 2022: 25 att 2021: 32 att Even if you want to isolate only “manageable” fourth down situations, such as fourth and 4 or less, the Commanders went for it more in 2023 (22 times), 2022 (20 times), and 2021 (22 times) than they did in 2024 (19 times). The difference in 2024 was not in the “desire” to go for it. The difference was their ability to convert, and that was thanks primarily to Daniels with help from Kingsbury. The Commanders converted 87% of their fourth down attempts in 2024: 20 of 23 They didn’t come close to that rate in prior years: 2024: 87% ◄ 2023: 55% 2022: 48% 2021: 50% But it wasn’t just previous Commanders offenses that didn’t come close to that 87% conversion rate. Shockingly, no team in modern NFL history has come close to that rate. Looking back to at least 2000, no team with over 10 fourth down attempts in a season converted 87% or better…except the 2024 Commanders. Expanding the sample, look at the top performing teams with over 15 fourth down attempts since 2000: 87%: 2024 Commanders (23 att) ◄ 81%: 2018 Saints (16 att) 80%: 2006 Patriots (20 att) 78%: 2022 Rams (19 att) 77%: 2008 Patriots (22 att), 2002 Colts (17 att), 2005 Patriots (17 att) 76%: 2020 Raiders (21 att) 75%: 2009 Jets (20 att) 74%: 2005 Broncos (19 att), 2004 49ers (19 att) 73%: 2023 Eagles (26 att), 2024 Bills (22 att) Washington’s efficiency on fourth down was the best we’ve seen in modern NFL history. When fourth down aggressiveness is mentioned, the first thought that pops into someone’s mind is the Philadelphia Eagles and their tush push. But the Commanders were actually more efficient on short yardage fourth downs than the Eagles. Looking at all teams on fourth and…