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Preview Warren Sharp’s Book: Predicting Bills’ 2025 Season
Jun 8, 2026Warren SharpSharp Football Analysis
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You are probably hearing great things about Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview , but you're curious about what a team chapter looks like and how predictive and helpful it will be heading into next season. We've got you covered. » Download the 2025 Bills Team Chapter We sent out the Bills over 10.5 wins to our futures subscribers before last season because of how good the Bills had been in the regular season, but Warren Sharp outlined why the Bills have struggled in the playoffs, something that continued in 2025. You cannot blame Josh Allen ’s overall performance as the reason they cannot seem to accomplish their goals of making it to and then winning the Super Bowl. If you look at the 24 quarterbacks with at least 50 playoff pass attempts since 2020, Allen is the #1 most efficient quarterback in the playoffs. #1 in EPA per play (+0.15) #1 in success rate (50%) We know how badly turnovers affect games, particularly in the postseason. That hasn’t been an issue for Allen. He has the #1 best TD:INT ratio in the postseason over the last five years. He has thrown 25 playoff touchdowns to only 4 interceptions, a TD/INT rate of 6.3 that ranks #1. In their five playoff losses, the Bills have averaged 24.6 points per game, which is not only above the scoring average in the playoffs for all teams (24.5) but is substantially above the scoring average for teams that lose playoff games (18.8). In fact, the Bills average 24.6 points per game in playoff losses over the last five years, the #1 most of any NFL team with at least three playoff losses. Opponents scored an average of 33.2 points in Buffalo’s five playoff losses over that span. It’s hard to pin those defeats on Allen. In his five losses, he’s averaged +0.14 EPA per play and a 51.2% success rate. Where do those stats rank among quarterbacks in playoff losses over the last five years? #1 in EPA/play #1 in success rate And yet, the only statistic that matters for the Bills is 0. That is the number of Super Bowl wins in the last five years. Even worse, that is the number of AFC Championships in their five playoff trips. Allen would be the first to point the finger at himself for things he could have done better in each playoff loss, and he hasn’t been perfect. But at the end of the day, given these statistics and this analysis, it’s hard to look at the Bills and think they can “get over the hump” in the playoffs if only Allen would play better. With this team, their playoff futility is not on the quarterback. So, if it’s not on the quarterback, who then bears the blame for the Bills failing mightily when it matters most and not bringing home any AFC Championships or Super Bowls these last five seasons despite recording the #2 most regular season wins and #2 most playoff wins? And the even bigger question: What are they changing to get over that hump in 2025? Unfortunately, the answer might be “not enough,” particularly when you look at this next analysis. As mentioned earlier, the defense has surrendered an average of 33.2 points per game in their five playoff losses over the last five years. When the average winning playoff team scores 30.2 points per game and your defense is surrendering a full 3.0 ppg more in these games, it’s probably not a positive sign. If you were rushing in to defend Buffalo’s defense, you might argue that they played the Chiefs in four of the five losses, so it’s natural to surrender more to such a good offense. But consider this: In the four years they met in the pl…