ArticleScore 100
Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 1, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
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Player mentions
Germie Bernard
WR · PIT · #injuryupdate
...ittsburgh also traded for Michael Pittman and spent a second-round pick on Germie Bernard to give their receiving room a makeover. -The Steelers struggled to...
Michael Pittman
WR · PIT · #injuryupdate
...tylistic complement to incumbent Jaylen Warren. Pittsburgh also traded for Michael Pittman and spent a second-round pick on Germie Bernard to give their receiving ro...
Rico Dowdle
RB · PIT · #general
...ints per drive (2.11), and 15th in points per game (23.4). They swapped in Rico Dowdle for Kenneth Gainwell, and the incoming running back is a better stylistic...
Kenneth Gainwell
RB · TB · #general
...2.11), and 15th in points per game (23.4). They swapped in Rico Dowdle for Kenneth Gainwell, and the incoming running back is a better stylistic complement to incumbe...
Jaylen Warren
RB · PIT · #traderumor
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The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Pittsburgh Steelers could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The Steelers can hang their hat on a high-caliber offensive line that can keep their quarterback upright and pave the way for their running game. Pittsburgh was first in pressure rate allowed, 12th in yards before contact per rush attempt, and seventh in first downs per rush. Tackle Broderick Jones is without a timeline for return from offseason spinal fusion surgery, but the team spent a first-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft on tackle Max Iheanachor. They also lost guard Isaac Seumalo to the Cardinals in free agency, but they signed Brock Hoffman in free agency and drafted Gennings Dunker in the third round. -Pittsburgh’s offense was mediocre last year, ranking 17th in yards per play (5.3), 15th in EPA per play, 20th in success rate, 16th in points per drive (2.11), and 15th in points per game (23.4). They swapped in Rico Dowdle for Kenneth Gainwell, and the incoming running back is a better stylistic complement to incumbent Jaylen Warren. Pittsburgh also traded for Michael Pittman and spent a second-round pick on Germie Bernard to give their receiving room a makeover. -The Steelers struggled to close the door last year. They were third in games led at halftime (11) but won only seven of those contests. They were 31st in losses when leading at halftime (4), resulting in a 24th-place ranking in winning percentage (.636) when leading at halftime in 2025. Reasons for the Under -Pittsburgh was tied for third in one-score wins (7) and lost only three one-score games. They tied for the fourth-highest win percentage (.700) in one-score games in 2025. -The Steelers were ninth in interceptions thrown (9), sixth in fumbles lost (6), fourth in total turnovers (15), eighth in opponent interceptions (15), second in opponent fumbles lost (12), fourth in opponent total turnovers (27), fourth in turnover margin (+12), and second in turnover net EPA. On fumbles specifically, the Steelers were second in net over expectation fumble recoveries (+5.1). -Aaron Rodgers is not only no longer an MVP-caliber quarterback. He’s also a below-average quarterback. Rodgers was 24th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025 in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate. He was in a hurry to get the ball out, with the quickest average time to throw. Rodgers was also 33rd in air yards per attempt (6.0), 27th in yards per pass attempt (6.7), had the highest percentage of passes (31.7%) thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, and had the second-highest percentage of throws behind the line of scrimmage or short (76.3%). This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview Order Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview to Get Penalty Analysis for All 32 NFL Teams Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview , is unlike anyth…