Player mentions

Xavier Smith
WR · LAR · #general

...> Of the depth WRs, the guy to watch seems like it should be Xavier Smith , but he’s like 5-9 and turns 29 in September. I’m not...

Jarquez Hunter
RB · LAR · #general

...ancillary back, and there’s a third guy in this backfield in Jarquez Hunter that still has his fans. Corum’s a tough bet at an elevated...

Jonathon Brooks
RB · CAR · #general

...ing cues suggest confidence in Matthew Golden and Jonathon Brooks <a href="https://bengretch.substack.com/p/offseaso...

Blake Corum
RB · LAR · #general

...rong>, who could maybe take a step forward in a similar way to how Blake Corum did last year. I wrote that Ferguson had, “ a lower TP...

Jordan Whittington
WR · LAR · #breakoutcandidate

...ports. Konata Mumpfield was very inefficient, and Jordan Whittington has had very low aDOTs and been efficient in the role, but they d...

Terrance Ferguson
TE · LAR · #general

..., but if one profile is interesting, it’d be second-year guy Terrance Ferguson , who could maybe take a step forward in a similar way to how <str...

Matthew Golden
WR · GB · #general

...nthers , including how team-building cues suggest confidence in Matthew Golden and Jonathon Brooks <a href="http...

Konata Mumpfield
WR · LAR · #general

...els , though I’ll be keeping an eye on camp reports. Konata Mumpfield was very inefficient, and Jordan Whittington has...

CJ Daniels
WR · LAR · #general

...turns 29 in September. I’m not that into sixth-round rookie CJ Daniels , though I’ll be keeping an eye on camp reports. Kon...

Max Klare
TE · LAR · #general

...t guy. That said, the Rams took another TE in Round 2 this year in Max Klare , and are insanely deep at the position. We didn’t get testi...

Brittan Golden
WR · #general

...a>, including how team-building cues suggest confidence in Matthew Golden and Jonathon Brooks <a href="http...

Davante Adams
WR · LAR · #injuryupdate

.../strong> “I’m way more concerned about Davante Adams , who had a strong year but missed the three games and saw h...

Ty Montgomery
RB · #general

...efs and Texans , including why my workload confidence for David Montgomery is abnormal for a Dead Zone RB <a href="https://be...

Isiah Ferguson
WR · #general

...one profile is interesting, it’d be second-year guy Terrance Ferguson , who could maybe take a step forward in a similar way to how <str...

Zac Brooks
RB · #general

...suggest confidence in Matthew Golden and Jonathon Brooks <a href="https://bengretch.substack.com/p/offseaso...

Jordan Williams-Lambert
WR · #general

...times, which is a nice boost to the value of those targets. Kyren Williams got 50 of the targets, and had the huge edge in routes (plus 170...

Christian McCaffrey
RB · SF · #injuryupdate

...ore than anything else, but I mean we’re basically talking about the Christian McCaffrey profile here where if he stays healthy he can do things that are almost un...

Cooper Kupp
WR · SEA · #injuryupdate

...tty shocked to see again. We just saw Sean McVay do similar in phasing out Cooper Kupp over his latter stages with the team… I can visualize a ton of &#822...

Matthew Stafford
QB · LAR · #general

...o the fragility is on two players, Nacua and then most importantly Matthew Stafford . A few years ago, that was the concern for the Rams, and <a href=...

Baker Mayfield
QB · TB · #general

...ass TD rate from last year is discounted, not being overplayed (like, say, Baker Mayfield’s 2024 pass TD rate was going into 2025). I’m...

Kyler Murray
QB · MIN · #general

...-vikings">Vikings and Bengals , including why I’m high on Kyler Murray in the best situation he’s played in <a href...

David Montgomery
RB · HOU · #general

...s">Chiefs and Texans , including why my workload confidence for David Montgomery is abnormal for a Dead Zone RB <a href="https://be...

J.K. Dobbins
RB · DEN · #general

...ill think the RB34 price tag there is too lofty, right ahead of names like J.K. Dobbins, Jonathon Brooks, Kenneth Gainwell, and Rachaad White, who are to me all c...

Kenneth Gainwell
RB · TB · #general

...ere is too lofty, right ahead of names like J.K. Dobbins, Jonathon Brooks, Kenneth Gainwell, and Rachaad White, who are to me all clearly and straightforwardly better...

Article text

I shifted my introduction for this post into a post of its own talking about the coaching staffs and evolution of the Rams and Seahawks, but also the evolution of the whole league. I suggest checking that out if you missed it. Today’s post brings us to the halfway point of these team-by-team writeups. Links to the first 14 teams: Packers and Panthers , including how team-building cues suggest confidence in Matthew Golden and Jonathon Brooks Chiefs and Texans , including why my workload confidence for David Montgomery is abnormal for a Dead Zone RB Cowboys and Saints , including some cold water on high-priced fantasy stars in fast-paced offenses (plus a longer intro into the series) Vikings and Bengals , including why I’m high on Kyler Murray in the best situation he’s played in Broncos and Bills , including how to think through tricky usage rotations for two good offenses Falcons and Colts , including long thoughts about the Colts’ new high-paid WR, Alec Pierce , and big opportunity in that passing game Buccaneers and Titans , including some harsh words about Mike McCoy he’s apparently read (see comments). Whoops. Let’s take a look at two NFC West rivals. Los Angeles Rams Key Stat: Puka Nacua — 3.71 YPRR, 34.6% TPRR (third-highest among any player since at least 2006, minimum 200 routes; No. 1 was Nacua’s 2024 season at 37.1%) Relevant Signals Quote: “I’m way more concerned about Davante Adams , who had a strong year but missed the three games and saw his YPT dip to 7.1, his third straight lower-efficiency season, even as his aDOT rose to 13.6… He’ll be 33 for most of the season, turning 34 in December, and we’ve seen an age-related decline… My read would be Adams’ red zone prowess and the 14 TDs masked not only age-related decline as that relates to fantasy production, but how some elements of his 2025 weren’t such a hit for the Rams, including his deep production. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value to them, but it ratchets up the possibility they go away from him a bit next year as their offense continues to evolve… He had over 1,500 air yards in 2025, which for example is the kind of thing I’d be pretty shocked to see again. We just saw Sean McVay do similar in phasing out Cooper Kupp over his latter stages with the team… I can visualize a ton of “big miss” scenarios, including probably a high expectation he won’t play all 17 games at this age when the team is clearly going to be fixated on a title… I’m not sure more really needs to be said about him… We won’t know until 2026 plays out whether his TD potential offsets the clear age-related risks for a second straight year. I can’t really make an argument against his TD production from 2025 other than it seems unwise to bet on a TD per game again in 2026, at his age, regardless of his track record in that area. That’s basically the whole discussion, but for me, if his cost stays remotely this high, I can’t imagine drafting him much at all… I’ll also keep an eye out for other WRs who could fill a void left by a disappointing Adams season in 2026, should we get that outcome, but it’s not clear to me who that would be.” ( Field Tippers ) Rams Field Tippers pass-catcher analysis When I write Field Tippers , I use a minimum of 100 routes for a player’s inclusion, and it’s always a little instructive to see how many players meet that threshold for a given team. As recently as the 2024 version of that post , the Rams were a hyper-concentrated 11 personnel team with only six players who m…