ArticleScore 100
Offseason Stealing Signals, Buccaneers & Titans
Jun 25, 2026Ben GretchStealing Signals (Ben Gretch)
Player mentions
Bucky Irving
RB · TB · #general
...rts of two games in Weeks 4 and 5 then needing to miss six more weeks, and Bucky Irving playing just 10 games. Jalen McMillan also played just four games, and so...
Jalen McMillan
WR · TB · #general
...en needing to miss six more weeks, and Bucky Irving playing just 10 games. Jalen McMillan also played just four games, and so for a big chunk of the meat of the sea...
Malik Nabers
WR · NYG · #general
...se he was overshadowed by such good players). BTJ smashed alongside Malik Nabers . Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both had...
Russell Wilson
QB · #general
... Most of the old Buckeyes like JSN and Garrett Wilson did way more with plenty of competition. You can kind of point to </...
Tez Johnson
WR · TB · #breakoutcandidate
...a patchwork offensive line playing with backups like Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson in big roles. Not having Evans in 2026 changes the shape of the receiving...
Emeka Egbuka
WR · TB · #injuryupdate
..., we’re definitely talking about wider error bars! For Emeka Egbuka , who we’ll also talk more about today, the production was s...
Carnell Tate
WR · TEN · #injuryupdate
...the college level, and how to contextualize that. In writing about Carnell Tate before the draft this year, I labeled a section of a post, “...
Russell Shepard
WR · #breakoutcandidate
...field behind a patchwork offensive line playing with backups like Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson in big roles. Not having Evans in 2026 changes the shape o...
Odell Beckham
WR · NYG · #general
...uch good players). BTJ smashed alongside Malik Nabers . Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both had 1,100 receiving yards in a p...
Mike Evans
WR · SF · #general
...> There were similar issues with health at the skill positions, with Mike Evans playing eight games, Chris Godwin returning for parts of two games in Week...
Matthew Slater
WR · #injuryupdate
...er team who can argue they had a similar dropoff after losing both Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and we also saw that really damage their offense (to be fair,...
Sterling Shepard
WR · #breakoutcandidate
...u had Mayfield behind a patchwork offensive line playing with backups like Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson in big roles. Not having Evans in 2026 changes the shape o...
Chris Godwin
WR · TB · #general
...s with health at the skill positions, with Mike Evans playing eight games, Chris Godwin returning for parts of two games in Weeks 4 and 5 then needing to miss six...
Cooper Kupp
WR · SEA · #general
...ably low. For what it’s worth, Robinson has been comparing Egbuka to Cooper Kupp this offseason, who he obviously worked with on the Rams, and everything a...
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR · NYG · #general
...in ensuing seasons rather than immediately within the rookie year), like a JuJu Smith-Schuster or a Chase Claypool, although both of those guys were criticized for not b...
John Robinson-Woodgett
RB · #general
...ll figures to be in a better situation than last year. Zac Robinson will be the fifth different offensive coordinator in the past five years f...
Baker Mayfield
QB · TB · #injuryupdate
...s-catcher analysis Much was made last year about Baker Mayfield’s play regressing from a career year in 2024, but you can&#...
Auden Tate
WR · #injuryupdate
...igger point there is probably best made about Terrace Marshall, and not as a Tate comp, but as an example of how we probably need to see it at the college l...
Drew Sample
TE · CIN · #injuryupdate
...breakout year in 2025 that’s mostly driven by a 13.3 YPT has a small-sample issue, as well. Could he have sustained that profile for 500 routes? We do...
Tyron Billy-Johnson
WR · #breakoutcandidate
...atchwork offensive line playing with backups like Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson in big roles. Not having Evans in 2026 changes the shape of the receiving...
Justin Jefferson
WR · MIN · #general
...great players who played together in college, typically both do very well. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase both smashed with over 1,500 yards an...
Gabe Nabers
FB · #general
...was overshadowed by such good players). BTJ smashed alongside Malik Nabers . Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both had...
Terrace Marshall
WR · MIA · #general
... both smashed with over 1,500 yards and 18 TDs each (teammate Terrace Marshall was overdrafted because he was overshadowed by such good players). B...
Isaiah Likely
TE · NYG · #general
...landed at No. 4 overall in the draft into an offense where he’s very likely to run big routes from Day 1. I’ve certainly softened my stance on h...
Article text
I’m fascinated by the idea of teammate strength at the college level, and how to contextualize that. In writing about Carnell Tate before the draft this year, I labeled a section of a post, “ You shouldn’t just assume things that aren’t there ,” as a way to articulate what I think is a fascinating aspect of his evaluation that there are a lot of people saying he can do a lot more that he wasn’t able to do in college because Jeremiah Smith looks like the second coming of Julio Jones. Since I wrote that, Tate landed at No. 4 overall in the draft into an offense where he’s very likely to run big routes from Day 1. I’ve certainly softened my stance on him a bit, and I’ll get into that today, but I do want to circle back on some of what I wrote about this theme. When we look at truly great players who played together in college, typically both do very well. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase both smashed with over 1,500 yards and 18 TDs each (teammate Terrace Marshall was overdrafted because he was overshadowed by such good players). BTJ smashed alongside Malik Nabers . Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both had 1,100 receiving yards in a passing offense where no other teammate had over 200 , because they only totaled 3,263. Most of the old Buckeyes like JSN and Garrett Wilson did way more with plenty of competition. You can kind of point to Chris Olave, who was bested by some younger teammates, and probably guys who are not even as good as Smith will be, but it’s worth noting Olave had two YPRR seasons over 3.3 and was over a 24% TPRR in each of his final three years, while Tate by comparison finished with a 3.02 YPRR in 2025 after two years below 2.0, and his final season 22.8% TPRR was his only one over 19%. That’s a big gulf in per-route production, despite Olave having a similar issue with raw receiving yardage where he never went over 1,000 yards (I’ll add that Olave did have two 12-TD seasons, while Tate had 14 total across all three collegiate seasons). If you go look at Tate’s game log, it’s boom/bust, consistent with this idea that he didn’t elevate his situation, but was brought along by coverage leaning elsewhere via explosive plays (and likely specific matchups). He played in five CFP games over the past two years and had more than 40 yards once. He also missed games in his final year and ran just 290 routes, so this per-route breakout year in 2025 that’s mostly driven by a 13.3 YPT has a small-sample issue, as well. Could he have sustained that profile for 500 routes? We don’t know. I do need to note that in the time since I’ve written this, I’ve come to understand that what Tate did was probably pretty similar to BTJ alongside Malik Nabers, which probably goes down as a pro argument, although BTJ had a lot more ball-in-hand upside and his rookie breakout featured a lot of quick-hitters that I’m skeptical Tate can leverage for production the same way. Part of why I thought BTJ was quite a bit better was his routes sample was larger, but it’s one of those things where Tate was meaningfully better per-route, and then I was doing some math where if I bridged the route difference by giving Tate another 161 routes at pretty regressed efficiency, Tate would still come out around BTJ’s per-route production over the larger routes sample. In other words, what Tate did in his small sample was enough to overcome the routes gap. He was also meaningfully better in his first two years, despite neither being very productive over those early co…