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New York Giants 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 1, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
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Player mentions
Theo Johnson
TE · NYG · #general
...on. Still, a combination of Darius Slayton, Calvin Austin, Darnell Mooney, Theo Johnson, and the aforementioned Likely and Fields lacks a needle-moving weapon. Ne...
Malik Nabers
WR · NYG · #injuryupdate
...came to an end with a gruesome injury early in Week 8. No. 1 wide receiver Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4, and stud left tackle Andre...
Cam Skattebo
RB · NYG · #general
..." class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> The foll...
Jaxson Dart
QB · NYG · #general
...2025-300x200.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> <p...
Malachi Fields
WR · NYG · #injuryupdate
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the New York Giants could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. New York Giants 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The Giants couldn’t get the job done in one-score games last season. They were tied for last in one-score wins (1) and 30th in one-score losses (7) last year. Big Blue’s .125 win percentage in one-score games was 31st. One-score results tend to regress toward the mean. -Injury luck wasn’t on the G-Men’s side in 2025. They were 19th in offensive player health, 24th in defensive player health, and 23rd in total player health. Jaxson Dart missed two games after making his first start for the team in Week 4. Fellow 2025 draftee Cam Skattebo’s season came to an end with a gruesome injury early in Week 8. No. 1 wide receiver Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4, and stud left tackle Andrew Thomas also missed four games. -The Giants were 10th in EPA per play last year but only 27th in offensive success rate and 27th in red-zone touchdown rate (47.5% versus 57.3% for the NFL average). The Giants took swings at improving the offensive line in the offseason, drafting Francis Mauigoa in the first round and signing Lucas Patrick and Daniel Faalele. An improved offensive line, the addition of fullback Patrick Ricard, tight end Isaiah Likely, and big-bodied rookie wide receiver Malachi Fields should help their success rate and improve their chances of converting red-zone trips into touchdowns. Reasons for the Under -Penalties weren’t uniformly in favor of the Giants last year. New York was 29th in accepted penalties, 32nd in accepted offensive penalties, 29th in total penalty yards, and 31st in defensive penalty EPA. Yet the Giants were also first in penalties accepted against opponents and first in penalty yards against opponents. Ultimately, the G-Men were eighth in net penalty EPA. -Is John Harbaugh actually a good decision maker at the margins? The Ravens were 25th in EPA on fourth-down decisions last year and kicked field goals on fourth downs at the ninth-highest rate. It wasn’t a one-year blip, either. Baltimore was 22nd in EPA on fourth-down decisions from 2023 to 2025 and kicked field goals on fourth downs at the seventh-highest rate. -Malik Nabers is targeting a Week 1 return after undergoing a cleanup procedure on the knee he previously had surgery on for a torn ACL and a full meniscus repair. The Giants added ancillary pieces to the passing attack in the offseason. Still, a combination of Darius Slayton, Calvin Austin, Darnell Mooney, Theo Johnson, and the aforementioned Likely and Fields lacks a needle-moving weapon. Neither Odell Beckham nor JuJu Smith-Schuster is a primary target at this point in their career. This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview Order Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview to Get Penalty Analysis for All 32 NFL Teams Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF,…