ArticleScore 100
Minnesota Vikings 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 1, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
J.J. McCarthy
QB · MIN · #general
...class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> The foll...
Max Brosmer
QB · MIN · #startrecommendation
...5 Vikings was among the worst in the NFL. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer started games for Minnesota. They were 45th, 30th, and 57th in EPA per pla...
Carson Wentz
QB · MIN · #startrecommendation
...k play for the 2025 Vikings was among the worst in the NFL. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer started games for Minnesota. They were 45th, 30th, and 57...
Kyler Murray
QB · MIN · #general
...2026-300x200.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> <...
Jauan Jennings
WR · MIN · #injuryupdate
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Minnesota Vikings could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Minnesota Vikings 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The quarterback play for the 2025 Vikings was among the worst in the NFL. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer started games for Minnesota. They were 45th, 30th, and 57th in EPA per play among 57 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks. Even in a down year for Kyler Murray, he was 25th from that group in EPA per play. Among 36 qualified quarterbacks since 2024, Murray is 19th in EPA per play. -Third downs befuddled the Vikings last season. They were 32nd in third-down conversion rate at 31.8%. The NFL average for third-down conversion rate last year was 39.5%. In addition to improving their quarterback situation, the Vikings added a reliable third-down option in the passing attack, signing Jauan Jennings to be their No. 3 wideout. Among 93 qualified receivers last year, Jennings was 21st in third-down target rate. -Predictably, poor quarterback play led to interceptions last year. In fact, the Vikings were 32nd in interceptions thrown (21). They were also 20th in fumbles lost (9), leading to an NFL-high 30 turnovers. Their -9 turnover differential last year ranked 29th, and their turnover net EPA ranked 29th as well. It is fair to expect fewer interceptions in 2026. Reasons for the Under -Despite ranking 20th in fumbles lost last year, Minnesota actually had good fumble luck. The Vikings fumbled 23 times and lost only 9. Their opponents fumbled 22 times, losing 13 – the most in the NFL. They were fourth in fumble luck (4.5 net over expectation). -The Vikings were third in field goal success rate (94.3%), first in extra-point success rate (100%), fourth in opponent field goal success rate (80%), first in EPA on field goal attempts, and third in field goal luck (6.44 net over expectations). -Minnesota’s defense was fearsome last year. They were third in yards allowed per play (4.7), third in yards allowed per game (282.6), second in passing yards allowed per game (158.5), fifth in passing touchdown rate allowed, second in red-zone efficiency, fourth in third-down conversion rate allowed, first in pressure rate, fourth in points allowed per drive (1.69), and third in defensive points allowed per game (17.9). This year’s defense will look considerably different after trading Jonathan Greenard to the Eagles and cutting defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview Order Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview to Get Penalty Analysis for All 32 NFL Teams Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview , is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article. Get Warren's Boo…