ArticleScore 100
Miami Dolphins 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 1, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
Malik Washington
WR · MIA · #general
...ng the threshold to 30 games played in the NFL adds just Terrace Marshall, Malik Washington, and Greg Dulcich to the group. -The Dolphins were 26th in yards al...
Quinn Ewers
QB · MIA · #general
...oa was 27th in EPA per dropback among 33 qualified quarterbacks last year. Quinn Ewers was even worse than Tagovailoa. Malik Willis was first in EPA per play amo...
Tyreek Hill
WR · #traderumor
...seasons. Reasons for the Under -Miami cut Tyreek Hill and traded Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos. What’s left is a young and unimpr...
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · ATL · #startrecommendation
...ut his fingerprint on the team, and it starts at the quarterback position. Tua Tagovailoa was 27th in EPA per dropback among 33 qualified quarterbacks last year. Qu...
Jaylen Waddle
WR · DEN · #traderumor
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Miami Dolphins could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Miami Dolphins 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -Jeff Hafley will serve as Miami’s coach after Mike McDaniel’s four-year run came to a close. Hafley will put his fingerprint on the team, and it starts at the quarterback position. Tua Tagovailoa was 27th in EPA per dropback among 33 qualified quarterbacks last year. Quinn Ewers was even worse than Tagovailoa. Malik Willis was first in EPA per play among 60 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks last year, albeit on only 47 dropbacks. Among 62 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks since 2024, Willis is also first in EPA per play. Again, the sample is small (117 dropbacks). The dual-threat has ample room to regress over a larger sample while still being a marked upgrade from Miami’s 2025 quarterbacks. -Willis’ mobility is a weapon for Miami’s offense, and he’ll join a dynamic running back. Among 43 running backs with at least 150 touches last season, De’Von Achane was second in yards per touch (6.0), sixth in scrimmage yards (1,838), and first in runs that gained 10-plus yards (16.8%). The combination of Willis’ mobility and Achane’s explosiveness could provide the Dolphins with a potent rushing attack. -The Dolphins didn’t take care of the football last year. They were 29th in interceptions thrown (18) and 27th in total turnovers (24). Willis threw 0 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles in his action during the previous two seasons. Reasons for the Under -Miami cut Tyreek Hill and traded Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos. What’s left is a young and unimpressive pass-catching corps. The Dolphins drafted three wide receivers and two tight ends. Tutu Atwell is their most experienced and accomplished pass catcher. Jalen Tolbert is the only other pass-catching option with more than 50 games played in the NFL and 1,000 receiving yards. Lowering the threshold to 30 games played in the NFL adds just Terrace Marshall, Malik Washington, and Greg Dulcich to the group. -The Dolphins were 26th in yards allowed per play (5.8), 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.6), 26th in pressure rate, 28th in explosive-play rate allowed, 25th in points allowed per drive (2.32), and 24th in defensive points allowed per game (23.7). They released Bradley Chubb and traded Minkah Fitzpatrick. Rasul Douglas, who played the second-most snaps for them at cornerback, is still a free agent as of publication. The Dolphins will have to rely on incoming rookies and modest free agent signings, since they were tight against the cap, to improve last year’s bottom-tier defense. -Miami played the fifth-easiest schedule in 2025. This year, their first-time NFL head coach and quarterback with only six career starts has the second-hardest strength of schedule. This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview Order Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview to Ge…