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Los Angeles Rams 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 1, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
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Player mentions
Blake Corum
RB · LAR · #general
...ams, the stable of tight ends, and the backfield duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are still on the team, too. -The Rams left meat on the bone with ki...
Harrison Mevis
K · LAR · #general
...nge, 32nd in field goal EPA, and 23rd in extra-point success rate (95.4%). Harrison Mevis tidied up the kicking woes after debuting for the Rams in Week 10. He made...
Davante Adams
WR · LAR · #injuryupdate
...per game (30.5). Their entire starting offensive line is back, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, the stable of tight ends, and the backfield duo of Kyren Williams and Bla...
Matthew Stafford
QB · LAR · #general
...Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -Matthew Stafford is coming off an MVP campaign, leading a stacked offense. The Rams were fi...
Kyren Williams
RB · LAR · #general
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Los Angeles Rams could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Los Angeles Rams 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -Matthew Stafford is coming off an MVP campaign, leading a stacked offense. The Rams were first in yards per play (6.2), first in success rate, first in EPA per play, first in points per drive (2.78), and first in points per game (30.5). Their entire starting offensive line is back, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, the stable of tight ends, and the backfield duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are still on the team, too. -The Rams left meat on the bone with kicking. Los Angeles was 28th in field goal percentage (78.6%), dead last in third-down EPA per play in field goal range, 32nd in field goal EPA, and 23rd in extra-point success rate (95.4%). Harrison Mevis tidied up the kicking woes after debuting for the Rams in Week 10. He made 12 of 13 field goal attempts (92.3%), including all 6 inside of 39 yards, 5 of 6 from 40-49 yards, and his only attempt from 50-plus yards. Mevis also nailed all 39 of his extra-point tries. Mevis didn’t slow down in the playoffs, either. He made all 6 of his field goal attempts and all 9 of his extra-point attempts in three postseason contests. -Los Angeles’ secondary, namely their cornerbacks, was a weak spot on last year’s team. They’ve addressed the position by trading for Trent McDuffie and signing Jaylen Watson as a free agent. McDuffie and Watson played well for the Chiefs, and they will push Emmanuel Forbes into a depth role after he played the second-most snaps among their cornerbacks last year. The trade for Myles Garrett should also help the corners, assuming he continues to be near the top of the league in pressure rate. Reasons for the Under -The NFC West is a meat grinder. The Seahawks won last year’s Super Bowl and captured the NFC’s No. 1 seed in a winner-takes-the-top-seed matchup against the 49ers. Los Angeles played the fifth-hardest strength of schedule last season, and they have the fifth-hardest strength of schedule this season. The Rams won four of their eight games against playoff teams last year and piled up an 8-1 record against non-playoff teams. There’s not a lot of room for error for the Rams to exceed their win total with such a challenging schedule. -The Rams don’t just have a difficult schedule based on the quality of their opponents. Los Angeles has five games with more rest than their opponents. However, they also have five games with less rest than their opponents. Again, there’s not much room for error for the Rams with such a high over/under total for wins, and five games where their opponents will have the upper hand in days of rest and preparation will be challenging. -The flags came out in favor of the Rams in 2025. They had the fewest accepted penalties and the fewest total penalty yards. Los Angeles also ranked first in penalty margin, first in…