ArticleScore 100
Los Angeles Chargers 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 1, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
Getting things ready
Loading Fantasy Redzone…
Player mentions
Omarion Hampton
RB · LAC · #general
...uchdowns at a higher rate in the red zone, but so could better health from Omarion Hampton, who played in only nine games as a rookie. Reasons for th...
Justin Herbert
QB · LAC · #general
...2025-300x200.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Justin Herbert" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> The foll...
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Los Angeles Chargers could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Los Angeles Chargers 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -Injuries ripped through the Chargers in 2025. They were 25th in offensive player health, 23rd in defensive player health, and 27th in total player health. Making matters worse, the injuries on offense included cluster injuries along the offensive line. Rashawn Slater missed the entire year after rupturing his patellar tendon during practice in August. Joe Alt played in only six games. No offensive linemen for the Chargers played in all 17 regular-season contests last season. In addition to getting Slater and Alt back, Los Angeles hit the offensive trenches in free agency and the draft. -Justin Herbert, predictably, played much better with Alt on the field last year. His EPA per dropback with Alt on the field would have been the highest among qualified quarterbacks last year if he had produced it over the entire season. A healthier offensive line and the addition of Mike McDaniel as the team’s offensive coordinator could lead to Herbert’s best season of his career, and, in turn, a high-octane offense. -The Chargers got stuck in the mud in scoring territory last year. They were 29th in red-zone touchdown rate at 47.4%, nearly 10 percentage points below the NFL average of 57.3%. Obviously, a healthier offensive line could help the team score touchdowns at a higher rate in the red zone, but so could better health from Omarion Hampton, who played in only nine games as a rookie. Reasons for the Under -The Chargers won six of their 11 games in 2025 by one score, tying for eighth in one-score victories. Furthermore, their .750 winning percentage in one-score games ranked third because they lost only two one-score games. -The schedule makers did the Chargers no favors, as they have the largest rest disadvantage (24 fewer days of rest) in 2026. They’ll face four opponents off a full bye, two off a mini-bye, and one opponent with an extra day of rest. The team’s net days rest are the worst since 2013 and the fourth-worst since 1990. -Jim Harbaugh has won precisely 11 games in each of his two seasons as the head coach of the Chargers. That success doesn’t mean he’s above reproach. The Chargers were 29th in the rate of going for it on fourth down last year, and Harbaugh’s conservative decision-making led to the Chargers ranking 29th in EPA on fourth-down decisions. In Harbaugh’s two years as the team’s head coach, the Chargers are 30th in the rate of going for it on fourth down and 31st in EPA for fourth-down decision making. This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview Order Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview to Get Penalty Analysis for All 32 NFL Teams Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview , is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps an…