ArticleScore 100
Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 3, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
Rashee Rice
WR · KC · #injuryupdate
...ric Mahomes might not get much help from a lackluster pass-catching corps. Rashee Rice isn’t a well-rounded wideout, doing most of his damage after the catch, an...
Xavier Worthy
WR · KC · #general
...rom this sample of wideouts. The next wide receiver up for Kansas City was Xavier Worthy, who was 59th. Travis Kelce is also closer to a JAG than a needle-mover at...
Travis Kelce
TE · KC · #general
...The next wide receiver up for Kansas City was Xavier Worthy, who was 59th. Travis Kelce is also closer to a JAG than a needle-mover at this point in his career, r...
Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC · #general
...gers-300x200.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Patrick Mahomes avoids a Chargers defender as he scrambles from the pocket" style="margin-...
Kareem Hunt
RB · #general
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Kansas City Chiefs could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The Chiefs went an obscene 11-0 in one-score games in 2024. The pendulum swung in the opposite direction in 2025. Kansas City was tied for dead last in one-score wins (1) and alone in 32nd in one-score win percentage (.100). They had an NFL-high nine one-score losses. Andy Reid didn’t forget how to win one-score games, but the discrepancy between their 2024 and 2025 showings illustrates the volatility of one-score contests. The Chiefs should find a happy medium between their perfect 2024 and putrid 2025. -Kansas City splurged on Kenneth Walker in free agency to add an explosive element to a backfield that has lacked explosiveness. Among 54 running backs with at least 100 touches last season, Walker was third in rush rate of gaining 10-plus yards (14.9%), Isiah Pacheco was 40th (8.5%), and Kareem Hunt was 49th (6.1%). Pacheco’s and Hunt’s lack of big-play ability is even more damning over a two-year sample. They are 47th (6.5%) and 49th (5.8%) in 10-plus-yard run rate among 49 running backs with at least 200 touches since 2024. -Slamming the door shut was a problem for the Chiefs last season. They were 4-3 in the seven games they led at halftime in 2025, and their .571 winning percentage was tied for 26th. The league average winning percentage when leading at halftime in 2025 was .762. From 2022 to 2024, Kansas City’s .903 winning percentage was second, markedly higher than the NFL’s average of .747 during that period. Reasons for the Under -The elephant in the room for the Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes is working his way back from surgery after tearing his ACL and LCL on December 14. Mahomes was a rock-solid seventh in EPA per pass attempt last year. However, he was also valuable with his legs. Mahomes was fifth in EPA per snap on scrambles, directly ahead of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Mahomes was also seventh in EPA per dropback on plays lasting more than 2.5 seconds. A less-mobile Mahomes could be problematic for Kansas City’s offense, given how valuable his play extension and scrambling have been. -A pocket-centric Mahomes might not get much help from a lackluster pass-catching corps. Rashee Rice isn’t a well-rounded wideout, doing most of his damage after the catch, and he’s rehabbing a clean-up procedure on his knee from jail. Tyquan Thornton was 30th in yards per route run (1.72) among 93 wideouts with at least 250 routes run last year, Kansas City’s second-best mark among wide receivers from that bucket, but he ran a route on just 37.1% of the team’s dropbacks, the lowest route rate from this sample of wideouts. The next wide receiver up for Kansas City was Xavier Worthy, who was 59th. Travis Kelce is also closer to a JAG than a needle-mover at this point in his career, ranking 22nd in yards per…