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Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 3, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
Chris Rodriguez
RB · JAX · #depthchartchange
...ints in free agency. The depth chart currently features Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez as the candidates to lead the way in carries. Tuten handled only 83 carrie...
Cam Little
K · JAX · #general
...eptions, 79 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns last year. -Cam Little has a huge leg and is a legitimate weapon for the Jaguars. He banged throu...
Bhayshul Tuten
RB · JAX · #general
...ass="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Trevor Lawrence and Bhayshul Tuten" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> The foll...
Trevor Lawrence
QB · JAX · #general
...ecap-300x200.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Trevor Lawrence and Bhayshul Tuten" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> ...
Travis Etienne
RB · NO · #depthchartchange
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Jacksonville Jaguars could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The Jaguars had a high-scoring offense in Liam Coen’s first year as the head coach. They were ninth in points per drive (2.35) and sixth in scoring offense (27.9 points per game). They were only 18th in yards per play (5.2) for the full season, which might be a reason for pause given their scoring. However, they had just 5.0 yards per play through November and kicked it up to 5.8 yards per play from December through January. -Coen also proved to be a shrewd decision-maker. The Jaguars added the fifth-most EPA with their fourth-down decision-making in Coen’s first year as a head coach. He was also willing to cut loose Trevor Lawrence a bit above average on early downs, as the Jaguars had the ninth-highest dropback rate on first and second downs. -Lawrence had an adequate first season with Coen, but it was how he finished the year that’s most encouraging for 2026. Lawrence was 17th in EPA per play, 16th in yards per pass attempt (7.2), and 12th in passing touchdown rate (5.2%) over the course of the full season. Lawrence flourished after the bye, though. From Week 9 through Week 18, Lawrence was fifth among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play, seventh in yards per pass attempt (7.9), and fourth in passing touchdown rate (6.6%). Reasons for the Under -The Jaguars were second in turnovers forced (31) last season, masking some other less impressive defensive marks. They were 21st in passing yards allowed per game (218.1) and 30th in sack rate. The unit will also need to adjust to the loss of linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency. -Jacksonville’s backfield is a significant question mark entering this season after Travis Etienne signed with the Saints in free agency. The depth chart currently features Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez as the candidates to lead the way in carries. Tuten handled only 83 carries in 15 games in the regular season in his rookie campaign, and Rodriguez set career highs for carries (112) and rushing yards per game (38.5) in 13 games for the Commanders last season. In addition to needing to prove that either or both can handle a larger workload, neither has demonstrated pass-catching acumen. Rodriguez has only 7 targets and 6 receptions in 35 career games. Tuten ran just 88 routes with 13 targets, 10 receptions, 79 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns last year. -Cam Little has a huge leg and is a legitimate weapon for the Jaguars. He banged through 8 of 10 field goal attempts of 50-plus yards in the regular season in 2025, and he’s converted 13 of 16 in the regular season in his career. Still, the Jaguars benefited from the fourth-most field goal luck in 2025 (3.03 net over expectation). Furthermore, Little missed his only 50-plus-yard attempt before the half against the B…