ArticleScore 100
Indianapolis Colts 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 3, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
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Player mentions
Riley Leonard
QB · IND · #startrecommendation
...d Philip Rivers off the couch and a four-year absence, and one from rookie Riley Leonard. They went 8-5 in Jones’ starts and were winless in the other four games.<...
Tyler Warren
TE · IND · #general
...osh Downs fails to prove capable of playing more often on the perimeter or Tyler Warren doesn’t improve in his second season. -Indianapolis did an above-av...
Philip Rivers
QB · #startrecommendation
...ther that offense with 13 starts from Daniel Jones, three from 44-year-old Philip Rivers off the couch and a four-year absence, and one from rookie Riley Leonard....
Daniel Jones
QB · IND · #general
...2025-300x200.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Daniel Jones" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" decoding="async" /> The foll...
Michael Pittman
WR · PIT · #traderumor
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The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Indianapolis Colts could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Indianapolis Colts 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The Colts rolled out a potent offense last year. They were eighth in yards per play (5.8), sixth in success rate, seventh in EPA per play, second in points per drive (2.67), and eighth in points per game (27.4). Shane Steichen cobbled together that offense with 13 starts from Daniel Jones, three from 44-year-old Philip Rivers off the couch and a four-year absence, and one from rookie Riley Leonard. They went 8-5 in Jones’ starts and were winless in the other four games. -Steichen hasn’t just made chicken salad out of offenses with unexciting quarterbacks. He’s also made meaningful fourth-down decisions. The Colts were third in EPA added from fourth-down decisions in 2025. Moreover, Indianapolis has been fifth in EPA added from fourth-down decisions made during Steichen’s three-year tenure as the club’s head coach. -Indianapolis’ decision to move chips into the middle of the table by trading for Sauce Gardner didn’t result in a playoff berth last year. Gardner appeared in just four games after the trade. Charvarius Ward also played only seven games while navigating multiple concussions last year. A full season from Gardner and a healthier campaign from Ward would provide the team with a quality cornerback pairing on a defense that was 31st in passing yards allowed per game (247.9), 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1), and 15th in interceptions per pass attempt. Reasons for the Under -Daniel Jones was sixth in EPA per play among qualified quarterbacks last year. It was a career year in Jones’ seventh season in the NFL. He also set bests for completion percentage, adjusted net yards per pass attempt, passing yards per game, quarterback rating, QBR, and sack rate. Jones would be a regression candidate if he were entering 2026 completely healthy, and he’s coming off of tearing his Achilles on December 7, further complicating his path to repeating last year’s career-best performance. -The Colts re-signed field-stretching wideout Alec Pierce. Among 93 wide receivers with at least 250 routes last year, Pierce was 14th in yards per route run (2.11) and second in yards per reception (21.3). His dynamism is a critical part of the passing game, but retaining him came at the expense of Michael Pittman Jr, who was traded to the Steelers in a salary dump. Moving Pittman leaves the pass-catching group thin at best and problematic at worst if Josh Downs fails to prove capable of playing more often on the perimeter or Tyler Warren doesn’t improve in his second season. -Indianapolis did an above-average job of converting third downs and fourth downs in 2025, ranking eighth in third-down conversion rate and fifth in fourth-down conversion rate. They could struggle to convert third and fourth downs as efficiently in 20…