I ran the 2026 SF rookie class through 12 years of hit rate data. The R1→R2 cliff is the steepest we've seen.

Player mentions

Article text

I've been running a SuperFlex rookie hit rate model for the past six years — 12 years of dynasty rookie ADP mapped against every hit season produced. Just plugged the entire 2026 class in. Wanted to share a few things that jumped out before the next wave of rookie drafts kicks off. Quick on the methodology, since most of this post leans on it. The model produces three different hit rate numbers for every player: Base rate. What history says about a player at that ADP slot and position. Generic by design — it doesn't know anything about the specific player. Useful for the bigger picture, not so much for any one guy. Adjusted rate. The same number, but scaled for that specific player's film, situation, and projection. This is where the actual player evaluation lives. Composite. The blend of the two. A hedge against my own film read being off — anchors the adjusted number back to historical reality. Base rate is a solid baseline, but we can do better than that. The adjusted and composite are where the real signal lives. Everything below leans on those two. A "hit" = a top-12 QB, top-15 RB, top-24 WR, or top-12 TE finish (full PPR). "3+" means a player produced 3 or more of those finishes in his career. So a 50% adjusted 3+ rate means the model thinks there's a 50% chance that player produces at least 3 career hit seasons. ADP sources: MFL + Sleeper for 2014–17 (early SF era, harder to source), DLF for 2018–25, Sleeper for the 2026 sample (post–NFL Draft, early May). OK — onto the actual class. The headline: Round 1 is solid, the Round 2 cliff is brutal. The 2026 class's average composite and adjusted 3+ hit rates, by round: Round Composite 3+ Adjusted 3+ 1 45% 51% 2 14% 15% 3 14% 14% 4 5% 6% This is the steepest round-1/round-2 cliff of any class I've modeled going back to 2014. The 2026 class is front-loaded with conviction names; starting in the EARLY 2nd, it's a sea of dart throws. If you're at the 1.07–1.12 turn this year, the math says you should be more willing than usual to reach for the player you've planted your flag on. The drop-off is severe. The 3rd round essentially gives you the same odds of hitting on a prospect as the 2nd does this year. The biggest steals in the class. I took every player's projected ADP rank (1–48) and compared it to where the model ranks them by adjusted + composite 3+. Positive value = model says the player is worth more than consensus does. Top 6: Slot Player Pos Value vs ADP 3.11 Oscar Delp TE +21 4.06 Brenen Thompson WR +19 3.09 Eli Raridon TE +17 3.03 Max Klare TE +14 4.03 Justin Joly TE +12 3.04 Skyler Bell WR +10 Four tight ends in the top six. Delp, Raridon, and Klare are the headliners — all R3, all with adjusted 3+ rates in the 28–42% band, all going at ADPs that say consensus thinks they're late-round flyers. Our 2021 hit rate cut planted the flag on round-3 TE as the highest-EV scouting target in the rookie draft, and the 2026 update made that finding more emphatic, not less. If your league has a TE-needy roster and you're picking in round 3, the play is clear. The non-TE name to circle: Brenen Thompson at 4.06 (#2 in the table). Film profile screams "draft me earlier," and the 33% adjusted is the kind of number that usually doesn't show up below the third round. The Mike McDaniel pairing doesn't hurt. The top of the class. Flagship name is the one you'd expect. Jeremiyah Love at 1.01 comes in at 66% composite / 82% adjusted 3+. An 82% adjusted rate is the kind of number I don't hand out — i…