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Houston Texans 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 3, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
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The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Houston Texans could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Houston Texans 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -The Texans have an elite defense. As good as they were, they can clean up the explosive-play rate they allowed, which ranked 14th. They were also just eighth in sacks per pass attempt, despite their elite pressure rate. They should remain one of the game’s best defensive units. The team traded up in the second round to select defensive tackle Kayden McDonald with the 36th pick and snared free agent Reed Blankenship as a bounce-back candidate at safety. -Houston had difficulty scoring touchdowns in the red zone. They ranked 30th in red-zone touchdown percentage (46.3%) in 2025, 11 percentage points below the NFL average (57.3%). David Montgomery will provide the backfield with an upgrade and was tied for 16th among running backs in red-zone touchdowns (7) last year, even though he shared a backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery is a more rugged and successful runner than Woody Marks, as evidenced by significantly bettering him in percentage of runs that went for zero or negative yards (15.2% versus 23.0%) and yards after contact per rush attempt (3.17 versus 2.59). -C.J. Stroud was sixth in EPA per play among 32 qualified quarterbacks in his rookie season in 2023 before sinking to 28th out of 36 qualified signal callers in EPA in a sophomore slump. Stroud rebounded in 2025, ranking 12th in EPA per play. There’s proof of concept that Stroud can play at an above-average, even top-10, level. Reasons for the Under -C.J. Stroud was an abject disaster in the playoffs. He dropped back 87 times against the Steelers and Patriots. He completed just 51.9% of his pass attempts, tossed 0 touchdowns, threw 5 interceptions, and took 6 sacks. Stroud has demonstrated an exciting ceiling and a terrifying floor. -Houston’s defense didn’t need much from its offense to win 12 games last year, which was convenient because it didn’t get much. The Texans were 24th in yards per play (5.1), 28th in success rate, 25th in EPA per play, 22nd in points per drive (1.98), but 13th in points per game (23.8). The offense can sink the club if the defense takes even a modest step back. -The Texans were first in field goal luck in 2025 (8.65 net over expectation). They made 48 of 52 (92.3%) field goal attempts, while their opponents converted only 18 of 27 (66.7%). This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview Order Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview to Get Penalty Analysis for All 32 NFL Teams Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview , is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article. Get Warren's Book Order Book Warren Sharp's book shares insights int…