Examining the UDFA WRs Using Analytics

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Hey everybody, You might remember me from my past posts here about various dynasty theory subjects (liquidity, pick valuation), or the many models I've shared over this year and last. Today I'm taking a look at the undrafted receivers from the 2026 class, and given how many of them there are, I won't waste time bloviating or taking away from their spotlight. The Model Before digging into the prospects themselves, it's imperative we understand how my model works. It predicts each player's three-year PPR outcome based on draft capital, receiving prowess (PFF grade and targeted QBR), traits (RAS), and production (best-year PPR/g and breakout age). Since this group went undrafted, it uses mock consensus rank, or MCR, as a stand-in for draft pick. As far as model bona fides go, it was validated extensively on held-out samples from the '21 through '23 classes, achieving a Spearman coefficient implying it does a better job ranking prospect outcomes than draft capital alone. I'll be using the space below to talk about these players in a looser sense, weaving in model-relevant stats to bolster my arguments when I can. The (free) linked article contains a comprehensive table of my model's predictions, along with more exhaustive analysis too long to fit into this Reddit post. The Prospects Caldwell & Sturdivant These guys fit into the tall speedster archetype, one that my research has shown is often primed for success. Essentially, if a college player is a high-aDOT target, he really needs to be tall if he's going to succeed in the league (though this may be more about diminutive sprinters' shortcomings than anything). I have some reservations about this profile, however; namely, I think guys like Caldwell and Sturdivant fool RAS. Their weight is upper echelon for receivers without accounting for their height, which might actually mean they're somewhat slim at their specific size. They still have room to put on weight, however, and their raw talents place them far above most other UDFAs, as we'll see. But it's something worth being cognizant of, especially considering the pair's middling college production. Noah Thomas & Donovan McCulley These two are great counterpoints to our previous pair, with each also standing firmly over 6'4". Thomas ran a 4.6, while McCulley ran an impossibly slow 4.76, both at 203 pounds. It's a good reminder that while it might not be trivial for Caldwell and Sturdivant to add weight, the basis for success is there, while the slower Thomas and McCulley might not be so lucky. Chase Roberts Roberts has the physicality that's in question for Caldwell and Sturdivant, even if he only ran a 4.6. That he was so much older than the competition by the end of his career is a bit of a red flag, too. Time will tell if his physicality was a product of dunking on underclassmen, but there's still a realness to his game that a lot of the other guys here lack. Dane Key Key is, in a way, the opposite of Roberts, breaking out early at Kentucky, yet never quite surpassing that early performance. Because breakout age is such an integral part of my model, however, it rates Key as one of its favorite prospects. And while he also sports a subpar 40 time, I prefer the measureables of a guy with his build (roughly 6'3") over some of the other guys here, even if I'm far cooler on him than my model, which regards him as the fourth-best UDFA. Tyren Montgomery Montgomery only started playing football at 22 after trying his hand at hoops, so he's und…