Dynasty Range of Outcomes: 2026 TE Class (Fantasy Football)

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Welcome back to the Dynasty Range of Outcomes series! This article will take a deeper look at this year’s TE class by utilizing historical prospect data to identify which players are more likely to break out in the NFL. By finding TEs with similar draft capital and production, we can project a player’s potential trajectory as they enter the NFL. To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2026 rookie class: Draft Capital : Draft capital is the most predictive metric. Players selected earlier in the NFL draft are more likely to receive significant playing time and become valuable assets for dynasty managers. Draft capital also represents a team’s investment in a player, which is why day three TEs are often easily replaced. Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. Unlike previous versions of this article, this year I will leverage my model’s schedule-adjusted production score, which combines a player’s career EPA per Opportunity, their best season in Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt, and SRS College School Rating into one holistic metric. To find players with similar production profiles, our analysis will apply a 15% to 20% threshold in both directions. Declare Status: Players entering the league within three years of graduating from high school are considered early-declare prospects. Why does this matter? Historically, early declare TEs have averaged higher breakout rates in the NFL. This comes as no surprise, as the most talented prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible after achieving significant success at the collegiate level. Weight: This data point has one of the lowest correlations to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter by weight to avoid comparing a Jordan Addison to Drake London , who is over 40 pounds heavier. In this analysis, we will apply a five-to-ten-pound threshold in both directions to identify players with similar body types. For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, check out our series primer . If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE . Let’s dive into the 2026 TE class! Eli Stowers joins the NFL after a unique career path. After starting his collegiate journey as a QB for both Texas A&M and New Mexico State, Stowers eventually transitioned to TE and flourished following his move to Vanderbilt. His 2024 production was truly elite, as he secured first-team All-SEC honors while commanding an impressive 27.5% market share of his team’s receiving yards. And in his final season, he maintained his impressive production, posting a 97th-percentile campaign with Vanderbilt in 2025. On top of that, Stowers leads this class in Yards per Route Run (2.34) , highlighting his elite efficiency throughout his career. Fast forward to this off-season, and he now lands with the Philadelphia Eagles after being selected in the second round. Naturally, we immediately think of the presence of Dallas Goedert , who could limit his opportunity early in his career. However, considering Stowers’ receiving versatility, I would not be shocked to see him utilized all over the formation. To provide an even more optimistic perspective, Stowers ranks in the 88th percentile in my rookie model . While he narrow…