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Dynasty Range of Outcomes: 2026 RB Class (Fantasy Football)
May 22, 2026Marvin ElequinThe Fantasy Footballers
Player mentions
MarShawn Lloyd
RB · GB · #general
...tasyfootballers.com/fantasy/marshawn-lloyd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MarShawn Lloyd and <a href="https://www...
Blake Corum
RB · LAR · #injuryupdate
...fantasyfootballers.com/fantasy/blake-corum" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blake Corum in 2025. As a result, barring an injury, Claiborne will likely remain...
Cam Skattebo
RB · NYG · #injuryupdate
...antasyfootballers.com/fantasy/cam-skattebo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cam Skattebo did break out in his rookie year (...
RJ Harvey
RB · DEN · #general
...hefantasyfootballers.com/fantasy/rj-harvey" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RJ Harvey and recently re-signed <a href="https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/...
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB · WAS · #general
...ballers.com/fantasy/jacory-croskey-merritt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jacory Croskey-Merritt had an inconsistent rookie season, while <a href="https://www.thefant...
Jadarian Price
RB · SEA · #general
...s://s26212.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Jadarian_Price_ROO.png" alt="Jadarian Price range of outcomes" width="1788" height="642" srcset="https://s26212.pcdn.c...
Jeremiyah Love
RB · ARI · #general
...s://s26212.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Jeremiyah_Love_ROO.png" alt="Jeremiyah Love range of outcomes" width="1588" height="768" srcset="https://s26212.pcdn.c...
Nicholas Singleton
RB · TEN · #general
...s26212.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Nicholas_Singleton_ROO.png" alt="Nicholas Singleton's range of outcomes" width="1788" height="894" srcset="https://s26212.pcdn...
Adam Randall
RB · BAL · #general
...antasyfootballers.com/fantasy/adam-randall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adam Randall , who enters the league with a </sp...
Jonah Coleman
RB · DEN · #general
...ps://s26212.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Jonah_Coleman_ROO.png" alt="Jonah Coleman's range of outcomes" width="1788" height="894" srcset="https://s26212.pcdn...
Demond Claiborne
RB · MIN · #general
...//s26212.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Demond_Claiborne_ROO.png" alt="Demond Claiborne range of outcomes" width="1788" height="768" srcset="https://s26212.pcdn.c...
Kaytron Allen
RB · WAS · #injuryupdate
...ntasyfootballers.com/fantasy/kaytron-allen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kaytron Allen finished the 2025 campaign as the most productive RB on their team. As...
Kaelon Black
RB · SF · #general
...t-image" alt="Jan 9, 2026; Atlanta, GA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers running back Kaelon Black (8) runs for a touchdown abasing Oregon Ducks defensive back Jadon Canady...
Roman Hemby
RB · LV · #general
...fantasyfootballers.com/fantasy/roman-hemby" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roman Hemby was equally involved for the Hoosiers. Finally, to provide more contex...
Eli Heidenreich
RB · PIT · #general
...asyfootballers.com/fantasy/eli-heidenreich" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eli Heidenreich had a similar trajectory at Navy,...
Rex Burkhead
RB · #startrecommendation
...antasyfootballers.com/fantasy/rex-burkhead" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rex Burkhead , who produced multiple flex-level...
Latavius Murray
RB · #general
...asyfootballers.com/fantasy/latavius-murray" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Latavius Murray remained fantasy-relevant for an extended period of time. We see that...
Todd Gurley
RB · #general
...tasyfootballers.com/fantasy/todd-gurley-ii" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Todd Gurley and <a href="https://www...
Javorius Allen
RB · #general
...tasyfootballers.com/fantasy/javorius-allen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Javorius Allen and <a href="https://www...
Jay Ajayi
RB · #injuryupdate
...hefantasyfootballers.com/fantasy/jay-ajayi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jay Ajayi , he broke out with the Dolphins early in his career before tearing his...
Derrick Henry
RB · BAL · #general
...ntasyfootballers.com/fantasy/derrick-henry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Derrick Henry , who is over 50 pounds heavier. In this analysis, we will apply a five...
Kenneth Dixon
RB · #breakoutcandidate
...ntasyfootballers.com/fantasy/kenneth-dixon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kenneth Dixon never emerged as reliable fantasy...
Kareem Hunt
RB · #general
...fantasyfootballers.com/fantasy/kareem-hunt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kareem Hunt , and <a href="https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/fantasy/devon-acha...
Aaron Jones
RB · MIN · #general
...fantasyfootballers.com/fantasy/aaron-jones" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aaron Jones , who is almost 32 years old, and <...
Article text
Welcome back to the Dynasty Range of Outcomes series! This article will take a deeper look at this year’s RB class by utilizing historical prospect data to identify which players are more likely to break out in the NFL. By finding RBs with similar draft capital and production, we can project a player’s potential trajectory as they enter the NFL. To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2026 rookie class: Draft Capital : Draft capital is the most predictive metric. Players selected earlier in the NFL draft are more likely to receive significant playing time and become valuable assets for dynasty managers. Draft capital also represents a team’s investment in a player, which is why day three RBs are often easily replaced. Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. Unlike previous versions of this article, this year I will leverage my model’s schedule-adjusted production score, which combines a player’s career EPA per Play, Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (one of the most predictive singular metrics for RBs), and SRS College School Rating into one holistic metric. To find players with similar production profiles, our analysis will apply a 15%-20% threshold in both directions. Declare Status: Players entering the league within three years of graduating from high school are classified as early-declare prospects. Why does this matter? Historically, early declare prospects have averaged higher breakout rates in the NFL. This is likely because the most talented prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible, having already achieved significant success at the collegiate level. Weight: This data point has one of the lowest correlations to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter by weight to avoid comparing a De’Von Achane to someone like Derrick Henry , who is over 50 pounds heavier. In this analysis, we will apply a five-to-ten-pound threshold in both directions to identify players with similar body types. For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, check out our series primer . If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE . Let’s dive into the 2026 RB class! Widely considered the top overall selection in dynasty drafts, Jeremiyah Love enters the year as the consensus rookie RB1. First off, his college production profile is surprisingly unique compared to other day-one prospects. When evaluating all 18 first-round RBs selected since 2013, Love ranks only 12th in Experience-Adjusted Production and 13th in career Scrimmage Yards per Team Play. However, when we adjust his production to account for Notre Dame’s strength schedule and team ecosystem, his profile starts to look a lot more optimistic. In fact, his SRS Career Score ranks in the 92nd percentile, well in line with some of the recent day one RBs. Coupled with his high-end draft capital, Love grades in the 97th percentile in my rookie model, placing him next to players like Todd Gurley and Bijan Robinson . As a result, even though his production profile may not be perfect, I am still confident in his career trajectory. In fact, RBs who rank in the +95th percentile in my rookie model have averaged a 100% RB1 hit rate within their first three years in the league. Given tha…