Did the Patriots overpay for A.J. Brown?

Player mentions

Article text

Four years after the Eagles gave up a first-round pick and a third-round pick to acquire receiver A.J. Brown from the Titans, the Eagles acquired a first-round pick and a fifth-round pick when giving up the balance of his contract in a trade with the Patriots. Along the way, the Eagles went to a pair of Super Bowls, winning one of them. All in all, the transaction was a big win for the Eagles. Especially on the back end, when it had become obvious that the relationship could not continue. The Eagles finagled real value for Brown at a time when the Eagles had no real options. No one was offering a first-round pick for Brown in 2027 — in part because everyone knew Brown wanted to go to New England, and only to New England. With the Eagles unable to credibly claim that they simply would have kept Brown on the team in 2026 (after signing two receivers, trading for one, and using a first-round pick on another), the Patriots arguably could have driven a much harder bargain. Ultimately, Philly's only leverage came from the timing of the deal. By doing it promptly on June 1, the Patriots got Brown in the door with two weeks of OTAs and a mandatory minicamp remaining in the offseason program. This gives Brown a chance to get his feet wet in the Josh McDaniels offense before training camp opens. Still, a first-round pick (in 2028) and a fifth-round pick (in 2027) are a lot to give up for a player who turns 29 on June 30, whose knee(s) caused the Rams not to make a trade in March, and who has a contract with an APY of $32 million. Then there's the situation involving Patriots coach Mike Vrabel. Ben Volin of the Boston Globe writes that "[i]t would be naïve, though, not to consider another reason for making the trade now — to distract from the episode involving Vrabel and Dianna Russini. . . . It certainly seems the Patriots were so desperate to move past the Vrabel-Russini story that they were willing to overpay for Brown." The theory that doing the deal quickly helps turn the page on the Vrabel-Russini situation is worth considering. But the league-wide notion that Brown was destined to be traded to the Patriots existed weeks before the interlocking-fingers photo emerged in early April (due in part to reporting from Russini). Also, the Vrabel-Russini story has largely subsided, and it will stay that way unless and until she tells her story publicly in a way that creates one or more new complications for Vrabel. The Patriots always seemed to be the likely destination, and June 1 always seemed to be the right time to get it done, since it created a much lower dead-money charge for the Eagles in 2026. The only question is whether the Eagles could have put the screws to the Patriots by slowing the process down beyond June 1 (perhaps keeping Brown through the end of the New England offseason program) in order to get the terms they wanted. If the Eagles had decided to play hardball in order to get more from the Patriots, Brown could have done the same. He could have shown up for the offseason program and/or mandatory minicamp. He could have insisted on being able to participate in drills. He could have said whatever he wanted to say about the situation, creating a distraction for the Eagles at a time when they're hoping to eliminate such issues, not add to them. However you slice it, it's a win for the Eagles. It could become a win for the Patriots, if Brown helps them win, and if that 2028 first-round pick lands low in the range of 32 selections. For…