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Best & worst picks in each round of a SF Startup, by ADP
Jun 9, 2026/u/FFgoldminer/DynastyFF
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
Rashee Rice
WR · KC · #general
...) Luther Burden - 5.04 (Garrett) Worst Fernando Mendoza - 5.05 (Ethan) Rashee Rice - 5.02 (Garrett) Round 6 (preview) Best Devonta Smith - 6.07 (Ethan) C...
Caleb Williams
QB · CHI · #general
...running as Liam Coen's offense clicked late. Why's he still mid-third when Caleb Williams (similar arc) goes late first? Patrick Mahomes - 3.05 (Garrett): If you'd...
Malik Nabers
WR · NYG · #general
...sell. Unproven passer, new run-heavy staff, plays with reckless abandon. Malik Nabers - 2.01 (Garrett): Talent I love — but he's coming off a torn ACL/meniscus...
RJ Harvey
RB · DEN · #general
...Best Travis Etienne - 7.02 (Ethan) Tucker Kraft - 7.01 (Garrett) Worst RJ Harvey - 7.12 (Ethan) Bhayshul Tuten - 7.11 (Garrett) Round 8 (preview) Best...
Bhayshul Tuten
RB · JAX · #general
...2 (Ethan) Tucker Kraft - 7.01 (Garrett) Worst RJ Harvey - 7.12 (Ethan) Bhayshul Tuten - 7.11 (Garrett) Round 8 (preview) Best Christian Watson - 8.10 (Ethan)...
Jaxson Dart
QB · NYG · #injuryupdate
Article text
Quick framing: Superflex, non-TEP, based on current startup ADP. My co-host and I each took a best and a worst per round and pushed back on each other where we disagreed — the name on each pick is whose call it is. Rounds 1–4 below; full 8-round breakdown linked in the video above. Shoutout dynasty data lab, found the website in this subreddit and used it for our ADP source. Sweet site. Round 1 Best Ja'Marr Chase - 1.05 (Ethan): Cleanest pick on the board for me. Freak talent tied to a healthy Burrow, and he's younger than people remember. Puka Nacua - 1.07 (Garrett): If you're choosing among the big-three WRs, I take whoever falls last and pocket the value. QB-proof at 25 — the only knock is the post-Stafford picture in LA. Worst Josh Allen - 1.01 (Garrett): Not a knock on his game — it's longevity and value. The Cam-Newton-style punishment worries me long-term, and you can almost always trade back from 1.01, still land an elite piece, and bank extra capital. Lamar Jackson - 1.10 (Ethan): Love him, but the injury history plus an aging supporting cast scares me, and he wasn't efficient even when healthy last year (~16 PPG). I'd rather move back or take a younger QB. No real disagreement here — both fades are value/longevity calls, not talent takes. Round 2 Best Justin Jefferson - 2.03 (Ethan): Top-two WR talent at his cheapest price ever after a down, QB-capped 2025. Kyler's a genuine upgrade and that offense should bounce back. Justin Herbert - 2.12 (Garrett): McDaniel replacing Roman is a legitimate scheme upgrade, both tackles (Slater, Alt) are back healthy, the weapons improved, and he's started using his legs. Floor pick at QB8. Worst Jaxson Dart - 2.10 (Ethan): Going ahead of Herbert/Hurts/Lawrence on hype. We were early on Dart last year — now the value's run too far and he's a sell. Unproven passer, new run-heavy staff, plays with reckless abandon. Malik Nabers - 2.01 (Garrett): Talent I love — but he's coming off a torn ACL/meniscus plus a second cleanup procedure, isn't on track for camp, and Week 1's in question. At this ADP I'd sell now and buy back cheaper. Perhaps this has dropped some in the most recent startups, but the risk is palpable right now in the early/mid 2nd. We agreed on both fades — classic "right player, wrong price." Round 3 Best Trevor Lawrence - 3.06 (Ethan): QB4 last year, passing numbers in Josh Allen's neighborhood, and he started running as Liam Coen's offense clicked late. Why's he still mid-third when Caleb Williams (similar arc) goes late first? Patrick Mahomes - 3.05 (Garrett): If you'd told me a year ago he'd be QB10 in startups, I'd take every share. The knee matters less for him than for run-first QBs — his value's the arm, and that's not going anywhere. Worst Colston Loveland - 3.11 (Ethan): He was our TE1 in last year's class and I still like him — but 3.11 off the board is steep when Tucker Kraft and others go 3–4 rounds later. Especially in non-TEP formats. Nico Collins - 3.10 (Garrett): Age plus a legitimate injury history, and I expect a more run-heavy, defense-led Texans script to cap his volume. Plus, if Tank Dell is even 90% of his former self, that could eat into Nico's target share some too. The counter on Nico: he's still a 6'4" WR8-caliber alpha — if Houston's passing game takes one step forward (Stroud was bad last year), 1,300+ and double-digit TDs are within the range of outcomes... On Loveland, the talent isn't the problem; the price is. But there's a legitimate chance he estab…