ArticleScore 100
Baltimore Ravens 2026 Win Total: Over or Under?
Jul 6, 2026Josh ShepardsonSharp Football Analysis
Getting things ready
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Player mentions
Devontez Walker
WR · BAL · #general
...reer-low 0.70 Y/RR, and 2 receiving touchdowns in 13 games. Third-year pro Devontez Walker and rookies Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt are Baltimore’s best bets for...
Elijah Sarratt
WR · BAL · #general
...s in 13 games. Third-year pro Devontez Walker and rookies Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt are Baltimore’s best bets for needle movers in the passing attack behind F...
Adrian Peterson
RB · #injuryupdate
...for everyone. King Henry is entering his age-32 season, and, per StatHead, Adrian Peterson’s 65.1 rushing yards per game are the most for a running back in their age...
Frank Gore
RB · #injuryupdate
...re the most for a running back in their age-32 season or older since 2016. Frank Gore, with 4.6 yards per carry on 156 rush attempts in his age-35 season in 201...
Derrick Henry
RB · BAL · #general
Article text
The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview . In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview . No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season. Let's look at the reasons the Baltimore Ravens could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season. Baltimore Ravens 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under? Reasons for the Over -Lamar Jackson missed four games last year after missing only one game in the two previous seasons. He was an uncharacteristic 20th in EPA per play among qualified quarterbacks last year, but still ranked third in yards per pass attempt (8.4) and third in passing touchdown rate. A healthier Jackson could recapture his pre-2025 form while he’s still on the right side of 30 for one more season. Jackson’s dynamism could also help the Ravens convert more red-zone trips into touchdowns after ranking 27th in red-zone touchdown rate (47.5%) last year. -The Ravens will play a less imposing schedule after finishing second in the AFC North last year. Baltimore has the sixth-easiest strength of schedule in 2026 after playing the 12th-hardest schedule in 2025. -Baltimore’s defense was a below-average group last season, ranking 24th in yards allowed per game (354.5), 21st in yards allowed per play (5.5), 21st in explosive-play rate allowed (11.1%), 18th in points allowed per drive (2.20), 18th in scoring defense (23.4 points per game), 28th in pressure rate, 31st in sack rate, and tied for 15th in turnovers forced (20). New head coach Jesse Minter is taking the reins after spending the previous two years as the Chargers' defensive coordinator. Nnamdi Madubuike, likely returning from surgery after suffering a neck injury in Week 2 last year, and Trey Hendrickson, who signed as a free agent, should give Minter the pieces, coupled with the talent already in place, for Baltimore’s defense to take a sizable step forward on that side of the ball in 2026. Reasons for the Under -Maybe Jackson doesn’t stay healthier in 2026. His four missed games in 2025 were out of the ordinary compared with his one missed game in the previous two seasons, but he missed five games in 2022 and five in 2021. It’s also possible that Jackson’s injuries and age have diminished his athleticism, and his career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game and career-low 15 runs of 10-plus yards in 2025 were indicative of what’s to come from Jackson as a runner going forward. -Derrick Henry was fifth in touches (322), second in rushing yards (1,595), and third in yards per carry (5.2) among 43 running backs with at least 150 touches last year, but Father Time comes for everyone. King Henry is entering his age-32 season, and, per StatHead, Adrian Peterson’s 65.1 rushing yards per game are the most for a running back in their age-32 season or older since 2016. Frank Gore, with 4.6 yards per carry on 156 rush attempts in his age-35 season in 2018, is the only running back with at least 100 rush attempts who cleared 4.5 yards per carry from the sample of gray-beard running backs since 2016. -The pass-catching corps behind Zay Flowers is a combination of unimpressive and unpr…