Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers are on a contractual collision course

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On Friday, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield made it clear that talks on a new contract are not going well . It remains to be seen whether that will change. For now, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Mayfield's representatives have not responded to the team's opening offer. Coupled with Mayfield's comments, this means that Mayfield and company view the starting point as reflecting a bottom line that won't be acceptable. So why bother to respond? Here's the problem. If Mayfield has a number in mind (and he clearly does), the initial position in response to the first offer will need to be sufficiently higher than the opener in order to get to the preferred ending spot via negotiation. So if Mayfield comes in with a number aimed at doing that and it leaks, Mayfield loses the P.R. war. Mayfield's current deal averages $33.3 million per year. He's due $27 million in cash in 2026, with $1 million in available incentives. The market currently tops out at $60 million per year for Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (if we ignore the new-money average as to Bills quarterback Josh Allen's latest contract). Where should Mayfield land between $33.3 million and $60 million? On one hand, too many teams pay too much for quarterbacks. On the other hand, the market is the market. It's not Mayfield's fault that Packers quarterback Jordan Love makes $55 million per year, or that Lions quarterback Jared Goff makes $53 million. (Or, for that matter, that the Dolphins paid quarterback Tua Tagovailoa $53.1 million per year.) Where should Mayfield land? Apparently, the team's opening offer points to a final offer that won't be good enough. The question becomes whether the Buccaneers would use the franchise tag on Mayfield in 2027. After he finished a one-year deal in 2023, the Bucs didn't tag Mayfield. Other teams that were looking for a quarterback didn't make a move. (Some should have.) Mayfield is surely willing to bet on himself. And, for as much as the Buccaneers claim to love Mayfield, they need to back that up with something that better reflects his value. Or they'd better have a good plan for life without Baker in 2027.