Are Players Worth Less in Dynasty Than They Used to Be?

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Hey folks, I’ve gotten a couple questions from subscribers and on my podcasts recently that I think are intertwined and worthy of a short standalone post to answer. Those questions are: Do my base pick rankings factor in the enhanced market value of a 2027 1st? Why are players (as a whole) less valuable in my current dynasty rankings vis-a-vis my base pick value tiers than in the past? To answer the first one, the simple answer is no. My definition of a “base pick” is a draft pick that has equal odds to fall in any slot between 1-12 in the year following the current season, without regard for the specific value of the draft class . The “base pick” is — intentionally — a purely hypothetical pick that does not truly exist in real dynasty leagues. It’s pure a value defining instrument, not descriptive of actual picks on your roster. When contemplating a pick for player trade in your leagues, you should consider how the actual pick at issue compares to the value of a “base pick.” There are a few universally important considerations at play: A “mid” 1st round pick is actually less valuable than a “base” 1st round pick. Even though the median is the same, a base-pick assumes equal odds of finishing anywhere 1-12. Because the gap in value between an early 1st and a mid 1st is higher than the gap between a mid 1st and a late 1st, a base 1st is more valuable than a mid 1st. Whatever you think of a team trading their own pick at the time they move it, you should presume that the odds of them bottoming out are materially lower after they’ve traded it. Teams become much more incentivized to make additional short-term moves to win games if they’ve already moved their pick. By that same token, you should value your own 1st-round pick more highly than the 1st-round pick of a similarly-projecting team. By keeping your own 1st-round pick you maintain flexibility to shift your approach and tank if things go more poorly than you expect. Beyond those universal truths it’s important to consider the quality of the upcoming class. The 2027 rookie class is already immensely hyped, with a potential of 4-6 Round 1 quarterbacks, arguably the best wide receiver prospect of all time, and multiple other receiver profiles that may be stronger than any 2026 option depending how their season goes (Cam Coleman, Ryan Williams, Mario Craver, Andrew Marsh). Is it a guarantee these players will hit, or even that they’ll be valued the way they are now when we get to the draft? Of course not. But I do expect the hype around the 2027 class to remain at a fever pitch until at least mid-way through the college football season. I think there’s a very good chance you’ll want to be overweight on 2027 1st-round picks by the spring of 2027. Even if you decide they’re over-valued, trading your 2027 1st is a bullet you can only fire once. You want to maximize the impact of that move. Even if I’m a likely contender at this point in the off-season I’m valuing my own 2027 1st-round pick as slightly over a base-1st given the upside of the draft class. I’d value another contender’s 1st-round pick equal to a base-1st, and I’d value a projected early 2027-1st at 1.5-2 base 1sts. If you think a 2027 1st (your own or someone else’s) has a legitimate chance to be Jeremiah Smith I’d consider it virtually un-tradable outside of a Round 1 startup level asset. Read more