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...d investment. This is a very similar value increase to notable risers like Jayden Daniels, KW3, and Malik Nabers over that same time frame. However, when compared t...
...ery similar value increase to notable risers like Jayden Daniels, KW3, and Malik Nabers over that same time frame. However, when compared to Mid 2026 picks, these...
...current Top 50 player on KTC has in the past 2 years except for JSN, Maye, Chase Brown, & Bo Nix. When compared against 2026 picks, these still netted out a slig...
Here's the post for reference: https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/sKjk01Lf31 Methodology and Findings Let's say, hypothetically, someone had seen my post and decided to acquire random 1st round picks in the 2027 class at the value of a 2027 Mid 1st at the end of June, 2024. Using KTC as the measure of value (I know it's not everyone's favorite, but it's directionally sound and has great historical data to reference), let's see how those picks have returned on value in the past 2 years. To account for the fact that picks generally tend to increase in value as they get closer to the present, I've also pulled the value increases for 2026 1sts for the equivalent time frame (i.e. from June 2023 to June 2025, before everyone decided this class sucks lol). Where does the pick fall? June 2024 June 2026 % Change (2027) 2026 Picks Early 2027 4,811 7,059 +46.73% +42.16% Mid 2027 4,811 5,603 +16.46% +18.99% Late 2027 4,811 4,932 +2.52% +10.25% Scenario 1: The pick becomes Early. Congrats, you hit the lottery! If bought at the price of a Mid 1st, these picks have gained more value than every single current Top 50 player on KTC has in the past 2 years except for JSN, Maye, Chase Brown, & Bo Nix. When compared against 2026 picks, these still netted out a slightly higher return than normal, which I'll call the Jeremiah Effect. Scenario 2: The pick stays Mid. Despite not rising into Jeremiah Smith range, these picks have still been a solid investment. This is a very similar value increase to notable risers like Jayden Daniels, KW3, and Malik Nabers over that same time frame. However, when compared to Mid 2026 picks, these have actually returned less value over the same portion of their lifecycle. This is largely due to 2026 picks starting off at a much lower value than 2027 picks, indicating that 2027 1st valuations have been inflated as far back as 2 years ago. Scenario 3: The pick becomes Late. Despite "falling" down boards, these picks have still basically held their value. Due to the inflated value of 2027 picks, however, these picks have severely underperformed as compared to 2026 picks in the same lifecycle stage. Even for a "weak class" like 2026, Mid 1sts still rose in value when they fell to Late 1sts due simply to the value trajectory of picks as they approach maturity. Because 2027 picks have been valued so highly for so long, that means there was less room to grow when they fell down boards. Conclusion So were 2027 1sts a good investment 2 years ago? Sure, but then again all 1st round picks are. That's what we love about picks: their valuation is highly insulated and predictable. As they get closer to maturity, they increase in value, at least until the draft itself approaches and they become attached to the players available at their slots. Because 2027 has been viewed as such a strong draft class for so long, with Smith as the headliner, this strength has been baked into their value as far back as 2 years ago when Smith had just graduated high school. So while you're probably pretty stoked if you bought a random 1st in 2025 that ends up being in the top end of the 2027 draft, the reality of the situation is that from a pure investment perspective, you did just about as well as you would have if you'd executed that same strategy in any given draft year. I'd posit that it's actually likely that 2027 1sts end up being a relatively poor investment, at least from a value perspective, once all is said and done. The cost to acquire said picks…
