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2025 Stretches of Play to Keep in Mind for 2026 Drafts [Analyzing Upside/Downside Splits for 7 Different Running Backs]
Apr 13, 2026r/fantasyfootballr/fantasyfootball
Player mentions
Sam LaPorta
TE · DET · #depthchartchange
...for me at his mid Round-6 RB18 Dynasty ADP when players like Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, or Cam Ward are available at a similar price. - Rico Dowdle, RB, PIT...
Blake Corum
RB · LAR · #general
...Warren (RB33). In fact, I would take higher upside handcuffs over him like Blake Corum (RB39) as well. It’s a similar story with his early Round-11 RB32 Dynasty...
Jaydon Blue
RB · DAL · #injuryupdate
...Williams’ only backfield competition is the combination of Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue. It’s worth noting that Davis outpaced Williams in route share over their...
Colston Loveland
TE · CHI · #general
...asting, young cornerstone piece like Tetairoa McMillan, Justin Herbert, or Colston Loveland. - Derrick Henry, RB, BAL > Redraft ADP: 20.3 (RB9), Dynasty ADP: 75.0...
Cam Ward
QB · TEN · #depthchartchange
...id Round-6 RB18 Dynasty ADP when players like Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, or Cam Ward are available at a similar price. - Rico Dowdle, RB, PIT > Redraft ADP...
Tetairoa McMillan
WR · CAR · #general
...pick, but I favor selecting a longer-lasting, young cornerstone piece like Tetairoa McMillan, Justin Herbert, or Colston Loveland. - Derrick Henry, RB, BAL > Redraf...
Derrick Henry
RB · BAL · #general
...one piece like Tetairoa McMillan, Justin Herbert, or Colston Loveland. - Derrick Henry, RB, BAL > Redraft ADP: 20.3 (RB9), Dynasty ADP: 75.0 (RB21) Everyone ke...
Alvin Kamara
RB · NO · #depthchartchange
...FPG in wins is the difference between low-end RB2 and RB1 production. With Alvin Kamara still in the mix, Etienne likely has fewer opportunities in a worse offens...
Patrick Ricard
FB · NYG · #injuryupdate
...es. During that stretch, the Ravens were without key run-blocker, fullback Patrick Ricard, while also facing run defenses that ranked in the top half of the league...
Josh Jacobs
RB · GB · #general
...B19 Dynasty ADP, but once again, I lean toward players like Zay Flowers or Josh Jacobs instead. - Travis Etienne, RB, NO > Redraft ADP: 55.3 (RB20), Dynasty A...
Daniel Jones
QB · IND · #general
...even opponents ranked top-10 against the run. That brutal schedule, plus Daniel Jones playing through a broken fibula from Week 12 until his season-ending Achil...
Jake Browning
QB · TB · #general
...Weeks 1-6 were the result of the Bengals playing top-tier run defenses and Jake Browning being under center. That line improved as the season went on, but further...
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN · #injuryupdate
...his Bengals offense bounces back in a big way with the return of a healthy Joe Burrow in 2026 — in their five games together to end the 2025 season, Brown avera...
CeeDee Lamb
WR · DAL · #general
...rly — particularly at the goal line and in the passing game — after losing CeeDee Lamb in Week 3. In both of the above splits, Williams was the league’s most eff...
Justin Herbert
QB · LAC · #general
...electing a longer-lasting, young cornerstone piece like Tetairoa McMillan, Justin Herbert, or Colston Loveland. - Derrick Henry, RB, BAL > Redraft ADP: 20.3 (RB9...
Jonathan Taylor
RB · IND · #general
...which end of the spectrum each is likely to finish closer to in 2026. - Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND > Redraft ADP: 8.3 (RB4), Dynasty ADP: Pick 27 (RB6) Jonathan T...
Rico Dowdle
RB · PIT · #general
...y Flowers, Sam LaPorta, or Cam Ward are available at a similar price. - Rico Dowdle, RB, PIT > Redraft ADP: 104.6 (RB31), Dynasty ADP: 122.0 (RB32) For an 8...
Travis Etienne
RB · NO · #depthchartchange
...again, I lean toward players like Zay Flowers or Josh Jacobs instead. - Travis Etienne, RB, NO > Redraft ADP: 55.3 (RB20), Dynasty ADP: 67.0 (RB18) Travis Etie...
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · DET · #general
...ivoting to comparably priced players in better offensive environments like Amon-Ra St. Brown or James Cook. With his early-Round 3 RB6 Dynasty ADP, Taylor is a fine pi...
Javonte Williams
RB · DAL · #depthchartchange
...re and everywhere, including in Brown’s early-Round 4 RB9 Dynasty ADP. - Javonte Williams, RB, > Redraft ADP: 40.1 (RB16), Dynasty ADP: 68.0 (RB19) Javonte Will...
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB · NE · #general
...DP is perplexing because there is no scenario where I am drafting him over Rhamondre Stevenson (RB32) or Jaylen Warren (RB33). In fact, I would take higher upside handcu...
James Cook
RB · BUF · #general
...priced players in better offensive environments like Amon-Ra St. Brown or James Cook. With his early-Round 3 RB6 Dynasty ADP, Taylor is a fine pick, but I favo...
Kyren Williams
RB · LAR · #breakoutcandidate
...ake Corum spent the majority of the 2025 season in a secondary role behind Kyren Williams — but a 4-game stretch with league-leading efficiency offered a compelling...
Jaylen Warren
RB · PIT · #breakoutcandidate
...ever, replicating that role in Pittsburgh would require Dowdle to supplant Jaylen Warren, something I don’t see happening based on his shortcomings last season....
Article text
Normally, I would post the link to this article and a brief blurb about its purpose. However, most people on this sub refuse to leave the safety and security of Reddit to consume fantasy football content (which is fair). For that reason, I am going to post the entirety of this piece here on Reddit, for free! If you still want to support my writing and love aesthetically pleasing graphics, you can still check out the article here at Fantasy Points https://preview.redd.it/08m3wkokc0vg1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fc133ffcdc63638d60c6ac587a29ff605423f0e A player’s final numbers compress the entire year into a single narrative — often an incomplete one. Throughout the season, we see glimpses of a player’s fantasy ceiling or floor, yet those periods are often overlooked in the offseason. If we take a closer look, we can use these splits to weigh upside potential versus downside risk. In this article, I analyze the production extremes for seven running backs and assess which end of the spectrum each is likely to finish closer to in 2026. - Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND > Redraft ADP: 8.3 (RB4), Dynasty ADP: Pick 27 (RB6) Jonathan Taylor went from an MVP candidate through the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season (27.4 FPG) — on pace for 27 total touchdowns (just four shy of the NFL record LaDainian Tomlinson) — to a low-end RB2 over the final 8 weeks (12.4 FPG). Which version of Taylor should drafters expect to see in 2026? Metric Weeks 9-18 Weeks 1-7 Rushing YPG 68.7 (RB15) 113.9 (RB1) YPC 3.33 (Last) 6.03 (RB1) Explosive Run Rate 0.7% (RB48) 7.9% (RB3) Total Touchdowns 3 16 YBCO/Att 1.48 (RB45) 3.17 (RB1) XFP/G 16.2 (RB7) 19.0 (RB2) FPG 12.8 (RB23) 27.4 (RB1) To accurately project Taylor’s range of outcomes, we first need to understand his late-season collapse. The primary driver was a significant drop in yards before contact per attempt beginning in Week 12 — a stretch that pushed him into bottom-3 efficiency league-wide. Context is crucial here: six of the Colts’ final seven opponents ranked top-10 against the run. That brutal schedule, plus Daniel Jones playing through a broken fibula from Week 12 until his season-ending Achilles tear in Week 14, explains the Colts’ offensive collapse — 31.2 PPG in Weeks 1-10 down to 20.7 in Weeks 12-18. For a gamescript-sensitive back like Taylor — 31.5 FPG in wins versus 12.4 FPG in losses — this kind of scoring drop-off can be devastating to his fantasy production. Looking ahead, Jones’ recent two-year extension comes with a major question mark: can he return to a high level of play after an Achilles tear? At $44 million per year, this organization is banking on it. And while Taylor remains an immensely talented back, the Colts’ anticipated offensive struggles have me projecting him as an extremely high-floor, lower-end RB1 next season. Fantasy Outlook: Taylor’s mid-Round 1 RB4 redraft ADP is appropriately priced, knowing the upside he offers when the Colts offense is clicking. But with regression expected behind a recovering QB, I lean toward avoiding the downside risk and pivoting to comparably priced players in better offensive environments like Amon-Ra St. Brown or James Cook. With his early-Round 3 RB6 Dynasty ADP, Taylor is a fine pick, but I favor selecting a longer-lasting, young cornerstone piece like Tetairoa McMillan, Justin Herbert, or Colston Loveland. - Derrick Henry, RB, BAL > Redraft ADP: 20.3 (RB9), Dynasty ADP: 75.0 (RB21) Everyone keeps waiting for Derrick Henry to fall off, and t…