ArticleScore 60
2025 Rookie Receiver Yardage Thresholds: Yearend Edition
May 14, 2026r/DynastyFFr/DynastyFF
Player mentions
Ricky White
WR · SEA · #general
...ominic Lovett, Jimmy Horn, Junior Bergen, Kaden Prather, LaJohntay Wester, Ricky White The Data The data below includes receivers to enter the NFL from 20...
Savion Williams
WR · GB · #general
...ted receivers who averaged less than 10 routes run per game: Round 1-3: Savion Williams, Tai Felton Round 4-5: Jalen Royals, Jordan Watkins, KeAndre Lambert-Smit...
Jack Bech
WR · LV · #injuryupdate
...did not meet their yearend threshold: Round 1: Matthew Golden Round 2: Jack Bech, Tre Harris Round 3: Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant...
Jayden Higgins
WR · HOU · #injuryupdate
...rend threshold with outlier potential: Round 1: Travis Hunter Round 2: Jayden Higgins All other receivers who did not meet their yearend threshold: Rou...
Tez Johnson
WR · TB · #general
...UDFA: Gage Larvadain, Isaiah Bond, Jakobie Keeney-James, Konata Mumpfield, Tez Johnson, Xavier Restrepo Drafted receivers who averaged less than 10 routes...
Pat Bryant
WR · DEN · #general
...Jack Bech, Tre Harris Round 3: Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jaylin Lane, Tory...
Tai Felton
WR · MIN · #general
...averaged less than 10 routes run per game: Round 1-3: Savion Williams, Tai Felton Round 4-5: Jalen Royals, Jordan Watkins, KeAndre Lambert-Smith Round 6-7...
Tory Horton
WR · SEA · #general
...ryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jaylin Lane, Tory Horton Round 6-7 and UDFA: Gage Larvadain, Isaiah Bond, Jakobie Keeney-James, Ko...
Elic Ayomanor
WR · TEN · #injuryupdate
...Round 1: Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan Round 2: Luther Burden Round 4: Elic Ayomanor UDFA: Theo Wease Receivers who didn't meet their yearend threshold...
Matthew Golden
WR · GB · #injuryupdate
...All other receivers who did not meet their yearend threshold: Round 1: Matthew Golden Round 2: Jack Bech, Tre Harris Round 3: Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle...
Isaiah Bond
WR · CLE · #general
...'e Thornton, Jaylin Lane, Tory Horton Round 6-7 and UDFA: Gage Larvadain, Isaiah Bond, Jakobie Keeney-James, Konata Mumpfield, Tez Johnson, Xavier Restrepo...
Jalen Royals
WR · KC · #general
...routes run per game: Round 1-3: Savion Williams, Tai Felton Round 4-5: Jalen Royals, Jordan Watkins, KeAndre Lambert-Smith Round 6-7: Dominic Lovett, Jimmy H...
Emeka Egbuka
WR · TB · #injuryupdate
...2025 Receivers Receivers that met their yearend threshold: Round 1: Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan Round 2: Luther Burden Round 4: Elic Ayomanor UDFA:...
Luther Burden
WR · CHI · #general
...r yearend threshold: Round 1: Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan Round 2: Luther Burden Round 4: Elic Ayomanor UDFA: Theo Wease Receivers who didn't meet...
Xavier Restrepo
WR · TEN · #general
...rvadain, Isaiah Bond, Jakobie Keeney-James, Konata Mumpfield, Tez Johnson, Xavier Restrepo Drafted receivers who averaged less than 10 routes run per game:...
Jimmy Horn
WR · CAR · #general
...Royals, Jordan Watkins, KeAndre Lambert-Smith Round 6-7: Dominic Lovett, Jimmy Horn, Junior Bergen, Kaden Prather, LaJohntay Wester, Ricky White The Dat...
Tetairoa McMillan
WR · CAR · #injuryupdate
...ers Receivers that met their yearend threshold: Round 1: Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan Round 2: Luther Burden Round 4: Elic Ayomanor UDFA: Theo Wease Re...
Travis Hunter
WR · JAX · #injuryupdate
...ho didn't meet their yearend threshold with outlier potential: Round 1: Travis Hunter Round 2: Jayden Higgins All other receivers who did not meet their...
Isaac TeSlaa
WR · DET · #general
...hold: Round 1: Matthew Golden Round 2: Jack Bech, Tre Harris Round 3: Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere D...
Jaylin Noel
WR · HOU · #general
...1: Matthew Golden Round 2: Jack Bech, Tre Harris Round 3: Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere Dike, Dont'e T...
Arian Smith
WR · NYJ · #general
...Round 3: Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jaylin Lane, Tory Horton Round 6-7 and UD...
Chimere Dike
WR · TEN · #general
...ac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jaylin Lane, Tory Horton Round 6-7 and UDFA: Gage Larva...
Dont'e Thornton
WR · LV · #general
...lin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jaylin Lane, Tory Horton Round 6-7 and UDFA: Gage Larvadain, Isaiah Bond...
Jordan Watkins
WR · SF · #general
...game: Round 1-3: Savion Williams, Tai Felton Round 4-5: Jalen Royals, Jordan Watkins, KeAndre Lambert-Smith Round 6-7: Dominic Lovett, Jimmy Horn, Junior Berg...
Article text
I'm back with the 2025 Rookie Receiver Yardage Thresholds: Yearend Edition. You can find the 2024 version here. People tend to use the 525 Rule as an indicator for potential future production. However, a combination of Draft Capital and Scrimmage Yd/G is a better indicator of future production than a one-size-fits-all approach. I looked at rookie receivers since 2006 who averaged at least 10 routes run per game. This refinement accounts for three things: Receivers with better draft capital should have greater production as rookies Receivers should be recognized for their impact on the running game Receivers shouldn’t be penalized for missing games during the season Below are the yearend thresholds by draft capital that rookie receivers need to meet in order to produce in years 2-3: Round 1: 50 Scrimmage Yd/G Round 2: 40 Scrimmage Yd/G Round 3+ or UDFA: 30 Scrimmage Yd/G Potential Outliers Round 1-2 receivers who missed their yearend yardage threshold but remained usable fantasy assets are what I will call "outliers". These outliers typically still delivered baseline efficiency and met both of the following thresholds: At least 1.25 yards per route run At least 0.175 targets per route run 2025 Receivers Receivers that met their yearend threshold: Round 1: Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan Round 2: Luther Burden Round 4: Elic Ayomanor UDFA: Theo Wease Receivers who didn't meet their yearend threshold with outlier potential: Round 1: Travis Hunter Round 2: Jayden Higgins All other receivers who did not meet their yearend threshold: Round 1: Matthew Golden Round 2: Jack Bech, Tre Harris Round 3: Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylin Noel, Kyle Williams, Pat Bryant Round 4-5: Arian Smith, Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jaylin Lane, Tory Horton Round 6-7 and UDFA: Gage Larvadain, Isaiah Bond, Jakobie Keeney-James, Konata Mumpfield, Tez Johnson, Xavier Restrepo Drafted receivers who averaged less than 10 routes run per game: Round 1-3: Savion Williams, Tai Felton Round 4-5: Jalen Royals, Jordan Watkins, KeAndre Lambert-Smith Round 6-7: Dominic Lovett, Jimmy Horn, Junior Bergen, Kaden Prather, LaJohntay Wester, Ricky White The Data The data below includes receivers to enter the NFL from 2006–2023 and shows the share who hit each points-per-game threshold in either Year 2 or Year 3. Receivers from 2024 were excluded as they have yet to play three seasons. Unless otherwise mentioned, the data only includes receivers who averaged at least 10 routes run per game. Yearend Threshold: The is segmented by receivers who did and did not meet their yearend threshold. The data can be found here. Potential Outliers: This is segmented by the outlier potential for Round 1 and 2 receivers who did not meet their yearend threshold. The data can be found here. Efficiency Metrics: This includes four efficiency-related metrics inclusive of all levels of draft capital: Scrimmage Yards Per Game, Touches Per Game, Yards Per Route Run, and Targets Per Route Run. The data can be found here. All Other Receivers: This includes all drafted receivers who averaged less than 10 routes run per game. The data can be found here. Efficiency Graphs As a final look, below are efficiency graphs to compare historical receivers from the last 10 years. These only include receivers who averaged at least 10 routes run per game. Receivers who met their yearend threshold are in black. Round 1 and 2 receivers who are potential outliers are in blue and italicized. All other receivers who didn't meet their yea…